In the latest update on Cardano, ADA is trading at $0.158, down 1.39% as of July 17. Meanwhile, derivatives markets show increasing bearish sentiment, with the long-to-short ratio dropping to 0.58. Open interest has also risen by 4%, reaching $421 million in the 48 hours leading up to the Van Rossem hard fork.
A notable divergence is emerging in market behavior. While many traders are building short positions, large holders (whales) are actively accumulating ADA at levels not seen since 2023. This opposing activity suggests mounting pressure, setting the stage for a potentially sharp price move once the market resolves its direction.
Van Rossem Hard Fork Scheduled for July 18
The Van Rossem upgrade received governance approval on July 13, backed by Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) and Delegated Representatives (DReps). Activation is set for July 18 at 21:44:51 UTC, at Slot 192,844,800.
Infrastructure group Intersect has advised all operators to update their systems ahead of the fork—a routine but critical step that indicates the rollout is proceeding smoothly without delays.
Reports suggest the upgrade will reduce execution costs on the Cardano network, making transactions and decentralized application (dApp) operations more efficient and affordable.
More importantly, Van Rossem establishes the foundation for the upcoming Leios upgrade, which aims to significantly increase transaction throughput by the end of 2026. This positions the current fork as part of a broader roadmap rather than an isolated event—helping explain why whale accumulation ahead of it is particularly significant.
Key Price Levels: $0.160 and $0.170
According to CoinGlass liquidation data, a dense liquidity zone lies between $0.160 and $0.165, just above ADA’s current price. Another major cluster is located near $0.167, aligning closely with the $0.1709 resistance level indicated by Murrey Math analysis on the daily chart.
These levels define the short-term outlook. A drop below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations, potentially driving the price down toward the $0.1465 support level. On the other hand, a move above $0.170 may force short sellers to cover, accelerating upward momentum as the fork goes live.
On the 4-hour chart, ADA has broken above a descending trendline formed from its early-July peak near $0.195, but this breakout has yet to translate into sustained upward movement.
The RSI currently sits at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, indicating a neutral-to-bearish trend. Importantly, the asset is not oversold, suggesting there is no strong technical support from extreme market pessimism—price action is largely waiting for a catalyst.
Comparing Past Upgrades and Market Impact
Cardano’s previous major upgrade, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022, enhanced smart contract performance and block efficiency.
Van Rossem, however, focuses on reducing costs and preparing for future scalability through Leios. The governance process behind it—now conducted via Intersect with formal SPO and DRep approval—also reflects a more advanced and transparent system compared to 2022.
The key question for traders is whether this improved governance credibility will translate into sustained buying after the fork, or if bearish traders will use any upward movement as an opportunity to increase short positions.
The liquidation cluster around $0.167 remains a crucial indicator. A daily close above this level would provide a clearer bullish signal. Historically, during major crypto events, the side controlling spot market supply tends to dominate, gradually overpowering futures positioning through sustained pressure.
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