BTC Traders Should Monitor Spike in Crucial Bond Market Indicator

Bitcoin Bulls Warned as Treasury Volatility Surges

Bitcoin (BTC) momentum has slowed, with long-term holder selling and weakening ETF inflows weighing on the market. A key factor now adding pressure is the MOVE index, which tracks implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options.

Created by former Merrill Lynch MD Harley Bassman, the MOVE index aggregates one-month options across 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries, reflecting market expectations for interest rate swings. Over three days, the index jumped from 77 to 89—the sharpest rise since early April, when tariffs shook markets and BTC briefly fell to $75,000.

Rising Treasury volatility typically tightens liquidity, raises borrowing costs, and triggers a “flight to safety,” with investors favoring short-term Treasuries over risk assets. Historically, BTC rallies have coincided with falling MOVE levels, making the recent surge a warning sign for bitcoin bulls.

If the MOVE index continues its climb, BTC could face further downside pressure, deepening the current pullback.