A widely followed on-chain signal is flashing early signs of a bullish shift in bitcoin’s market cycle, though analysts warn it should not be treated as a definitive predictor of future price action.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since 2023, a move that suggests improving market structure. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno said the transition typically marks the end of the most severe phase of a downturn and the beginning of a recovery period.
Historically, such shifts have signaled important turning points. When the indicator exits bear territory and enters an early bull phase, it often reflects strengthening conditions beneath the surface, even if price action has yet to fully confirm the trend.
Still, some market observers urge caution. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the metric as a regime indicator rather than a forecasting tool. Its primary value lies in identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset, rather than predicting the magnitude or timing of a rally.
According to Greenspan, real confirmation depends on follow-through in the form of sustained demand, improving liquidity, and the market’s ability to hold higher price levels. Until then, price action remains the key validation factor.
Previous instances of the indicator turning positive — including in 2019 and early 2023 — were followed by strong bullish phases. However, Moreno pointed to March 2022 as a notable exception, when a similar signal proved premature and was followed by further downside.
The current environment presents a mixed picture. While the indicator suggests a constructive shift and momentum is improving, bitcoin continues to face resistance near the $82,000 level. Despite rebounding roughly 35% from its February lows around $60,000, the asset has struggled to secure a decisive breakout.
Moreno noted that some secondary indicators are showing signs of exhaustion, indicating that the market may need more time before establishing a sustained uptrend. The backdrop is further complicated by neutral sentiment readings and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Other industry figures share a cautiously optimistic outlook. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, has suggested that bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year. He views $90,000 as a critical threshold, above which the rally could accelerate toward previous highs around $126,000.
At the same time, analysts emphasize that on-chain metrics should be interpreted carefully. Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, said indicators like MVRV and NUPL are better suited for understanding market behavior and positioning within the broader liquidity cycle, rather than serving as precise trading signals.
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