Conviction-driven bitcoin buyers have jumped 300%, as most new entrants currently sit on gains.

Bitcoin accumulation by so-called “conviction buyers” has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, marking a roughly 300% increase since late 2025 and underscoring a major shift in the asset’s market dynamics.

According to BitGo data referenced by Bitfinex, a growing share of bitcoin supply is being absorbed by long-term holders—entities characterized by minimal transaction activity and strong holding behavior. Bitfinex said this trend reflects a significant migration of realized value into more resilient hands.

At current prices around $80,000, these holdings are valued at over $320 billion.

“While the precise methodology behind BitGo’s ‘conviction buyers’ metric remains unclear, the broader signal is compelling,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. “Historically, tighter liquid supply combined with rising demand has created the conditions for bitcoin’s most explosive rallies.”

Bitfinex highlighted that the latest wave of accumulation represents the strongest two-quarter expansion in high-conviction buying since the recovery from the 2020 COVID-19 market crash. These buyers span both institutional investors and long-term individual holders.

Notably, this segment excludes the estimated 5.6 million BTC that has remained dormant for more than a decade, according to bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp. With total circulating supply at roughly 20.03 million BTC, an increasing portion is effectively being removed from active market circulation.

Analysts also pointed out that a rising share of bitcoin’s realized value is shifting off exchanges and into wallets tied to entities that rarely transact, regardless of price fluctuations—tightening available liquidity.

This structural transition is being driven in part by institutional accumulation and corporate treasury strategies. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, recently boosted its holdings to 818,869 BTC, acquired for nearly $62 billion, and is currently sitting on about $4.6 billion in unrealized gains.

As more bitcoin flows into these low-activity holders, the tradable supply continues to shrink, increasing the likelihood of a supply shock if demand accelerates.

Supporting the case for a strengthening market floor, research from CEX.IO shows that nearly 70% of recently acquired bitcoin is now in profit. This dynamic tends to reduce selling pressure, as investors are less inclined to exit positions during short-term dips.

CEX.IO analysts added that as more participants move into profitable territory, the market becomes more stable, with fewer reactive sell-offs.

“Those who truly understand bitcoin tend to accumulate rather than sell—especially now, with more avenues to borrow against BTC holdings,” said Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs. “This structurally removes supply from the market.”

Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, said bitcoin’s long-standing scarcity narrative is increasingly being reflected in real market behavior.

“With ETF inflows and institutional accumulation becoming structural rather than speculative, more supply is moving into conviction hands,” Howe said. “That could make future supply constraints far more visible when demand picks up.”

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