XRP Jumps 8% as Heavy Holder Losses Hint at Improved Entry Levels

XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios—metrics that indicate how deeply holders are in loss—have fallen to around -45% and -47%, respectively, levels Santiment says have never been seen before. Some traders interpret such extreme losses as a contrarian signal.

On-chain data suggests XRP holders are, on average, sitting on deeper losses than at any point in the asset’s history, a condition that some market participants view as a potential floor.

The signal comes from the MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio, which compares the current price of XRP to the average price at which its tokens last moved.

When the ratio drops below zero, it indicates that the average holder is at a loss. With the 30-day MVRV near -45% and the 365-day at roughly -47%, both short-term and long-term holders are significantly underwater.

Santiment noted that these combined readings mark the lowest levels ever recorded for XRP.

Such conditions typically reflect a capitulation phase, where investors endure substantial unrealized losses and weaker hands exit their positions, selling to buyers willing to accumulate at lower prices. Santiment framed this as a risk-reward setup rather than a definitive bottom signal.

“The most compelling opportunities often emerge when market sentiment is at its weakest,” the firm said, adding that much of the downside may already be priced in. However, it cautioned that prices could still decline further if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Despite these depressed readings, XRP has moved higher, gaining roughly 8% over the past week to trade near $1.14, according to CoinDesk data, making it one of the stronger-performing major tokens.

This trend aligns with a broader pattern observed by on-chain analysts, where large bitcoin holders have been accumulating even amid record ETF outflows—a dynamic often associated with late-stage sell-offs and absorption phases that typically occur near cycle lows rather than peaks.

Still, this does not confirm that a market bottom is in place. MVRV reflects how oversold the market may be, but not the timing of a reversal. Periods of deep losses can persist while prices continue to move sideways or drift lower.

What the data does suggest is that selling pressure from loss-making holders may be largely exhausted, making it important to watch whether sustained buying demand continues to emerge.