Standard Chartered Backs $500K Bitcoin Call Amid Trump’s China Warning

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick is maintaining his long-term Bitcoin forecast of $500,000 before Donald Trump leaves office, even as BTC trades above $64,000—around 49% below its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025.

While the large gap between the current price and Kendrick’s target draws attention, the more important question is what conditions must hold for the forecast to remain credible, especially after the bank missed its earlier $200,000 projection for 2025.

Trump’s renewed endorsement of Bitcoin, delivered during a White House event on July 6, has brought Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook back into focus. He framed his support primarily in geopolitical terms, arguing that failing to lead in digital assets could create strategic disadvantages for the United States.

Trump emphasized Bitcoin’s potential influence, noting that its capital flows are widely underestimated. He made his position clear by stating that if the U.S. does not embrace Bitcoin, China will take the lead.

This framing carries significant policy implications. China has enforced one of the strictest bans on crypto trading and mining since 2021 while simultaneously advancing its central bank digital currency. By positioning Bitcoin as a matter of geopolitical competition rather than just finance, Trump’s stance strengthens the pro-crypto narrative within U.S. policy and makes it more difficult to reverse.

That geopolitical perspective aligns with the core of Standard Chartered’s bullish thesis. The bank’s outlook is built on expectations of regulatory clarity under a supportive administration, along with expanded institutional access through spot Bitcoin ETFs. These structural factors, rather than short-term market momentum, underpin the $500,000 projection.

Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, first outlined the $500,000 target in February 2025 during a CNBC interview. At the time, he linked the forecast to anticipated regulatory support, projecting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in 2025 and $500,000 before the end of Trump’s term.

Bitcoin ultimately fell short of that near-term target, peaking at $126,198 in October 2025 before retreating. Despite this, Standard Chartered has not revised its longer-term outlook, continuing to cite institutional inflows, sovereign adoption, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply as key drivers that remain intact despite short-term volatility.

The bank still views $500,000 as a realistic endpoint within the current political cycle. However, with Bitcoin trading near $64,000 amid macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, the distance to that target remains significant. Near-term price milestones will likely serve as early indicators of whether the broader thesis is holding.

Not all analysts share this level of optimism. Some argue that a more conservative long-term scenario would place Bitcoin in the low-to-mid six-figure range, while also warning that further downside could occur before any sustained recovery takes shape.