The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% when its two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday, October 28. Policymakers are balancing annual inflation of 3.7% against signs of a cooling labor market, with the U.S. midterm elections just six days away. Before the 2 p.m. ET announcement, Polymarket traders assign a 94.9% probability to a rate hold.
While the immediate decision is largely anticipated, the outlook for December remains uncertain. Prediction markets indicate a 79% chance of another rate increase next month, making Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. press conference a key event for crypto investors.
Bitcoin is trading around $81,430, gaining 1.9% over the past 24 hours.
Polymarket’s October rate-decision contract has attracted $86 million in wagers. The most likely path across the next three meetings, with a 59% probability, points to no change in October, a rate hike in December, and another hold in January. December’s probability combines the markets pricing in increases of 25 and 50 basis points across the platforms.
The bond market is also signaling expectations of tighter monetary policy. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.68% on Monday, standing 68 basis points above the upper limit of the Fed’s target range. That compares with 4.17% in late August. Such a premium suggests investors believe interest rates could rise further rather than remain at current levels.
What Are Traders Expecting From Warsh?
Investors are primarily anticipating a hawkish hold, meaning the Fed keeps rates unchanged while avoiding any clear commitment to pause future increases.
The case for maintaining current rates comes from conflicting economic signals. Consumer prices climbed 3.7% year over year in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August, while Brent crude remained close to $111 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs during September, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.
On September 16, the Fed approved a quarter-point rate increase in a unanimous 12–0 vote. Its statement emphasized that inflation remained elevated and reiterated that “the Committee will deliver price stability.” Since becoming chair, Warsh has generally avoided offering firm forward guidance, maintaining that he does not “prejudge meetings.”
One important signal will be the number of dissenting votes. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supported a rate increase in July while the rest of the committee voted to hold.
Polymarket currently assigns a 33.5% probability to two dissenting votes, followed by 28% for three dissents and 23% for none. Matt Weller of FOREX.com describes two or more dissents as a “true hawkish hold.” Conversely, a unanimous decision could weaken expectations of a December increase.
The political calendar adds another complication. With the midterm elections approaching, policymakers may be cautious about creating additional uncertainty. SMBC chief economist Joseph LaVorgna commented before the meeting that “The Fed doesn’t want to poke the White House in the eye six days before an election.”
The most likely scenario is a rate hold accompanied by two hawkish dissents, another warning about persistent inflation, and a press conference in which Warsh leaves a December increase on the table without making a firm commitment. Under this outcome, market-implied odds of a December hike could remain near their current 73%–79% range.
The greater risk of a surprise may come from a more dovish message. No dissenting votes, or an argument from Warsh that 10-year Treasury yields near 5% are already tightening financial conditions sufficiently, could lead traders to reassess the likelihood of another increase.
What Could the Fed Meeting Mean for Crypto?
Bitcoin’s performance following previous Fed decisions this year suggests that the market’s reaction to the accompanying message may matter more than the rate decision itself.
BTC declined during the 24 hours following three of the five rate holds in 2026, recording an average loss of 2.6% across all five decisions. The steepest declines came after the January and June meetings, when Bitcoin fell 6.2% and 5.1%, respectively.
By contrast, the quarter-point increase announced on September 16 was followed by a 1.1% daily gain and an 11.3% advance over the following week. The move suggests that removing uncertainty surrounding the decision can sometimes support prices, even when the Fed tightens policy.
Options markets currently indicate relatively restrained expectations for volatility. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 37.3 on Wednesday and has remained within approximately 37–39 over the past two weeks.
This relatively narrow range leaves room for a stronger market reaction if Warsh delivers an unexpected signal.
A firm indication that rates could rise in December would likely put upward pressure on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, both of which have tended to weigh on Bitcoin. A more accommodative message could ease those pressures and provide support for BTC.
However, traders will have several additional catalysts to consider beyond Wednesday’s announcement. September’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and third-quarter GDP figures are due Thursday. Deribit’s monthly options expiry follows on Friday, while the U.S. midterm elections take place on November 3.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624 After the Fed?
Bitcoin is trading above its key moving averages but has yet to recover the opening level for October, leaving the market vulnerable to further volatility around the Fed decision.
BTC is changing hands near $81,430 on Binance, above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,829 and its 200-day EMA at $76,442. These levels may provide nearby technical support if buyers maintain control.
Resistance: $83,624, corresponding to Bitcoin’s October opening price. A sustained close above this level would return the monthly performance to positive territory.
Support: $79,221, the October 24 low. This level has held through three separate declines during the current week, making it an important area for buyers to defend.
A dovish tone from Warsh could help Bitcoin challenge the $83,624 resistance level. However, a stronger commitment to further tightening could put the $80,829 moving average under pressure and bring the $79,221 support zone back into focus.
About The Author
More Stories
Bitcoin Reclaims $81K as Asian Chip Rally Lifts Crypto, PEPE Gains 9%
Kospi Jumps 7% as SK Hynix Earnings Revive AI Stock Rally
Bitcoin and S&P 500 Could See Major Gains After U.S. Midterm Elections