Bitcoin and S&P 500 Could See Major Gains After U.S. Midterm Elections

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 could both experience substantial gains in the year following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, if historical trends offer any indication.

Since Bitcoin launched in 2009, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization has experienced four U.S. midterm election cycles. Excluding 2010, when the crypto market was still extremely small and largely on the fringes of finance, Bitcoin recorded an average gain of 53.7% during the 12 months following the other three elections, according to CoinDesk’s analysis.

The calculation compares Bitcoin’s daily closing price at 00:00 UTC on Election Day with its closing price on the same date one year later.

Bitcoin’s performance following the 2010 midterms was far more dramatic, with the cryptocurrency surging 1,579% over the subsequent year. However, the market was too small and immature at the time for that return to provide a reliable benchmark.

If previous trends continue, Bitcoin’s recent consolidation around $80,000 could precede another upward move after November 3. BTC has already rebounded more than 35% since falling below $60,000 in June. Some analysts believe the market could be entering a new bullish phase, making the current period an opportunity for investors looking to accumulate and hold digital assets.

Political influence or Bitcoin’s four-year cycle?

Despite the historical gains, the available data is too limited to establish a reliable relationship between U.S. midterm elections and Bitcoin’s price performance. Previous post-election rallies may instead reflect the cryptocurrency’s recurring four-year market cycle.

Bitcoin’s cycle is closely associated with its mining reward halving, a programmed event that occurs approximately every four years and cuts the number of new BTC awarded to miners for each block by 50%.

Following each of Bitcoin’s four completed halvings, the cryptocurrency experienced a substantial rally, reached a peak roughly 12 to 18 months later and subsequently entered a bear market.

Those downturns coincided with U.S. midterm election years in 2014, 2018 and 2022, as well as the current year, 2026. Consequently, the recoveries that followed earlier midterms may have reflected the beginning of a new Bitcoin market cycle rather than a direct response to political developments.

S&P 500 history also points to post-election gains

The S&P 500 has a much longer track record than Bitcoin, and its historical performance also suggests that the 12 months following U.S. midterm elections tend to be favorable for investors.

According to Hartford Funds, the index has delivered an average return of 15.17% during the year after midterm elections since 1950. That compares with an average gain of 7.30% across other years.

The historical pattern suggests that the period following midterms has often been positive for U.S. equities, potentially offering a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets. However, past returns do not guarantee similar outcomes in future market cycles.

What the 2026 midterms could mean for markets

The November 2026 elections could influence how President Donald Trump pursues his agenda during the final two years of his current term in the White House.

If Democrats gain control of one or both chambers of Congress, disagreements over the federal government’s growing debt could intensify. The unresolved debt-limit issue could complicate negotiations, while Trump’s proposal for $350 billion in mandatory defense funding may face significant resistance, according to Brookings. Democratic lawmakers could also use congressional oversight and legislative restrictions to challenge funding for military escalation in the Middle East.

The cryptocurrency industry could face greater scrutiny as well. Democratic committee chairs may investigate potential conflicts of interest involving Trump’s personal crypto earnings and family business ventures. Democratic lawmakers have already sent oversight letters concerning the president’s crypto connections and family interests.

Trump’s memecoin, launched in January 2025, has also drawn criticism after retail investors suffered substantial losses.

Nevertheless, the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Slaughter left much of the financial regulatory system under presidential control. As a result, congressional opposition could have limited ability to prevent the administration from pursuing its crypto-friendly agenda.

For now, financial markets have largely factored in the possibility of a divided government, with Democrats widely expected to regain control of at least one chamber of Congress.

The historical evidence offers a potentially bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the S&P 500 after the midterms, but it remains unclear whether political changes, Bitcoin’s halving cycle or broader economic conditions will ultimately drive the next market move.

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