Bitcoin Whale Moves $35M to Coinbase at $15M Loss as BTC Faces October Pressure

A Bitcoin whale tracked by Arkham Intelligence transferred 438.37 BTC, valued at $35.38 million, to Coinbase Prime early on October 28. The move came 16 months after the wallet withdrew 615.4 BTC from the same custody service at an average price of $105,271. The transfer represents an unrealized loss of approximately $15 million and adds to recent Bitcoin news surrounding large holders moving funds to exchanges.

The transaction arrives as October’s anticipated “Uptober” rally loses momentum. Bitcoin is trading near $81,445, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours but down 2.5% since the beginning of the month, with only three days remaining.

The latest transfer raises questions about whether major Bitcoin holders are preparing to sell and which upcoming events could determine BTC’s next move.

Bitcoin News: Are Whales Moving BTC to Exchanges?

The latest transaction shows that at least one large holder has transferred Bitcoin to an exchange, although broader market flows present a mixed picture.

The wallet identified as bc1q9kaa…l77q had remained inactive since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. At 00:48 UTC on October 28, the address transferred 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address, leaving 177.03 BTC in the original wallet, according to blockchain data.

Transfers to exchanges are often interpreted as potential preparation for selling because deposited assets can be traded more easily. However, the whale has not disclosed the reason for the transaction, and Coinbase Prime also provides institutional services that allow clients to hedge positions or borrow against their holdings.

Broader exchange flows pointed in the opposite direction on Tuesday. Preliminary data from CryptoQuant showed that exchanges recorded a net outflow of 12,570 BTC, worth approximately $1.01 billion, on October 27. This followed net inflows exceeding 7,000 BTC a day earlier.

Analyst Darkfost also noted that the 30-day average of whale deposits on Binance had declined from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion. Meanwhile, deposits from retail investors have been increasing since September.

These figures suggest that the latest whale transfer should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of widespread selling. While individual large holders may be reducing exposure, overall exchange movements indicate a more complicated market picture.

Bitcoin Faces an October Deadline at $83,624

Bitcoin’s performance this month has fallen short of expectations, putting its historical October strength at risk.

BTC opened October at $83,624 on Binance and climbed to $87,220 on October 2 before reversing lower. The decline continued until Bitcoin reached $79,221 on October 24.

With three days remaining in the month, Bitcoin must close above $83,624 to finish October in positive territory. That would require an increase of approximately 2.7% from its current price of $81,445.

Failure to recover the monthly opening level would mean Bitcoin records consecutive negative Octobers for the first time in more than a decade. October 2025 ended with a 3.9% decline on Binance, while previous negative October performances since 2013 occurred in 2014 and 2018.

The coming sessions could therefore determine whether Bitcoin manages a late-month recovery or extends its recent weakness.

Which Upcoming Events Could Influence Bitcoin’s Price?

Several major economic, corporate, and market events are approaching, with the Federal Reserve’s decision likely to be the immediate focus for BTC traders.

– October 28 — Federal Reserve decision: The policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. After the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability to rates remaining unchanged.

– October 29 — PCE inflation and corporate earnings: September’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report will follow the hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading of 3.7%. Coinbase and Strategy are also scheduled to release their third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes.

– October 30 — Bitcoin options expiry: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options are set to settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for the expiry stands at 135,452 BTC, worth approximately $11.04 billion and representing 34.4% of Deribit’s total open interest. The put-call ratio is 0.53, while the max-pain level—the strike price at which option buyers collectively face the greatest losses—is $78,000.

– November 3 — U.S. midterm elections: The elections could influence the direction of crypto legislation and the regulatory environment, depending on which party gains control of Congress.

– December 9 — Federal Reserve meeting: Traders are already considering the possibility of another rate increase. Polymarket currently places the probability of a December hike at 76.5%.

The combination of monetary policy, inflation data, corporate earnings, and options positioning could produce additional volatility for Bitcoin over the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624 Before October Ends?

Bitcoin has enough room to recover its monthly opening price, but the market has yet to demonstrate sufficient momentum for a sustained move higher.

BTC is trading slightly above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,833 after rebounding from the October 24 low of $79,221. Its 200-day EMA remains lower at $76,443.

Key resistance: $83,624, Bitcoin’s October opening price. A monthly close above this level would return BTC’s October performance to positive territory.

Additional resistance: $84,898, the October 21 high that preceded the latest decline.

Key support: $79,221, the October 24 low, which has remained intact through three subsequent price dips this week.

Bitcoin’s next move will depend on whether buyers can push the price above nearby resistance while defending the recent lows. A recovery beyond $83,624 would improve the monthly outlook, whereas a break below $79,221 could expose BTC to further downside pressure.

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