Unitree Eyes IPO Debut as Hyperliquid Traders Bet on 4x Upside

• Hyperliquid traders are pricing Unitree at nearly $38 billion, far above its roughly $9 billion IPO valuation, creating significant liquidation risks once the stock starts trading, according to Allium analysts.
• Crypto traders are wagering that Chinese robotics company Unitree Robotics could be valued at more than four times its IPO level after entering the public market.
• Unitree set the price of its Shanghai STAR Market IPO at 150.80 yuan ($22.37) a share, giving the company an estimated valuation of around $9 billion. Meanwhile, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid traded between $92 and $94 on Friday, implying a valuation close to $38 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Allium.
• The sizable gap highlights strong investor expectations surrounding Unitree, one of China’s most closely followed robotics firms. Established in Hangzhou in 2016, the company develops quadruped and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer uses. Allium reported that Unitree generated $253 million in revenue last year, marking a 335% increase, while humanoid robot shipments surpassed 5,500 units.
• Reports indicate that Unitree’s IPO was oversubscribed by retail investors by around 8,000 times, with the company expected to begin trading between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
• Unitree’s debut is also drawing attention to the rapidly growing pre-IPO perpetual futures market within the crypto derivatives sector.
• Hyperliquid initially gained traction as an onchain platform for perpetual futures, allowing users to take leveraged long or short positions without expiration dates. Its ecosystem has since broadened beyond cryptocurrencies to assets such as oil and gold, and more recently to private companies preparing for stock-market listings.
• Pre-IPO perpetual contracts do not give traders ownership of the companies they track, nor can the positions be exchanged for actual shares. Instead, they create synthetic markets that allow traders to speculate on a company’s valuation before its stock officially begins trading. Prices are generally expected to move toward the actual market price once the shares have a public reference price.
• Recent IPOs have highlighted the potential effectiveness of these contracts as price-discovery tools.
• Allium analysts noted that a pre-IPO perpetual tracking Chinese memory-chip manufacturer CXMT came within 2.5% of the company’s Shanghai opening price when trading began in July.
• Hyperliquid traders also successfully predicted in June that Elon Musk’s SpaceX would begin public trading above its $135 IPO price.

Painful convergence

• Unitree has already generated substantial trading activity. Two Hyperliquid markets, operated by Trade.xyz and Paragon, have collectively reached $9.1 million in open interest and approximately $59 million in trading volume, Allium reported.
• When both markets were active, their contracts traded at an average spread of just 1.6%. Most recently, prices hovered around $92 to $94, representing more than 300% potential upside compared with Unitree’s IPO price.
• However, the fourfold premium also means that even a strong IPO debut could result in heavy losses for leveraged bullish traders.
• Allium said Unitree could open at twice its IPO price and still trigger liquidations on roughly one-third of long positions.
• For example, an opening price near $45—double the IPO price—would remain about 52% below the prevailing perpetual contract price and could wipe out around 33% of long exposure, according to the analysts. Conversely, a $128 opening price, nearly six times the IPO price, could liquidate an estimated 53% of short positions. If the shares debut close to the current perp price, neither side would face significant liquidations.
• On Trade.xyz, the larger of the two markets, positioning is nearly balanced, with approximately $6.5 million in long positions against $6.6 million in shorts. Smaller traders, however, are taking a more bearish stance, with positions under $50,000 being 70% short by value.
• Allium said that any opening price significantly different from the current perp level would force one side of the market into liquidations.

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