“Bottom is in”: Tom Lee says Iran ceasefire could ignite bitcoin’s next major rally

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is calling a bottom in equities—a view that, if validated, could extend directly to bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and the broader crypto market given their strong correlation with risk assets.

Lee argues that the recent Iran ceasefire marks a turning point, signaling that “the bottom is in” for stocks. In a CNBC appearance, he said a move above the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average at 6,617 would confirm a decisive shift higher. By Thursday morning, E-mini futures had already surged to 6,820, comfortably clearing that level.

His thesis hinges on two key observations.

First, equities showed resilience during the worst of the geopolitical stress. From mid-March to early April, the S&P 500 climbed from 6,300 to 6,600 even as oil prices surged from $87 to $116 and tensions escalated—suggesting markets had already absorbed much of the downside risk.

Second, Lee describes the ceasefire as a “positive rate-of-change inflection.” The shift from escalation to de-escalation triggered a rapid repricing across markets: equities rallied 2.5%, oil plunged roughly 15%, and volatility, as measured by the VIX, dropped below 20 in a single session.

Still, the call comes with caveats—and incentives. Lee’s firm has significant exposure to crypto, including a recent purchase of 71,252 ETH, making it one of the largest corporate buyers of ether.

More importantly, the durability of his “bottom” call may be tested quickly.

Signs of strain in the ceasefire are already emerging. Iran’s parliament has indicated that multiple clauses of the agreement have been breached, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Oil has also begun to rebound, rising 2% to around $97 after its sharp decline.

If the ceasefire breaks down, the narrative flips. A renewed surge in oil and geopolitical risk could push both equities and crypto back toward recent lows—undermining the very foundation of Lee’s bullish thesis.

For now, markets are treating the ceasefire as a turning point. Whether it proves to be a durable bottom—or just a temporary pause—will likely be decided in the coming days.

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