The ‘time pain’ narrative: a lasting bottom in bitcoin may only emerge after months of stagnant, low-volatility trading.

Long-term holder dynamics point to a bear market that may be approaching maturity, but a decisive bottom could still take time as the market works through an extended period of sideways movement.

Crypto investors are still grappling with two key uncertainties: how much further bitcoin could decline and how long the current downturn might last.

Much of the focus has been on “price pain,” defined by sharp corrections and heightened volatility. Yet an equally important factor is “time pain”—a slower, more draining phase where prices move within a tight range, eroding conviction through a lack of clear direction rather than sudden losses.

Bitcoin is currently trading below $66,000, down over 3% in the past 24 hours and roughly 45% below its October peak, marking close to six months in a bearish cycle.

On-chain data suggests that this phase may still have room to run. Glassnode’s Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, which segments supply based on when coins last moved and weights them by their realized price, shows a continued rise in long-term holder activity.

Historically, bear market bottoms tend to coincide with long-term holders—those holding coins for at least six months—controlling 85% or more of total supply. Typically, prices bottom first, followed by a gradual increase in long-term holder dominance as accumulation takes place at lower levels.

At present, long-term holders control around 80% of supply. If this trend persists, it suggests the market may be edging closer to a bottom. However, previous cycles indicate that several more months of subdued, range-bound trading may still be needed before a definitive floor is formed.

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