FTX distributions and U.S. employment figures set the tone for the week in crypto.

Crypto Week Ahead outlines the key developments in digital assets alongside the macro events expected to drive market sentiment. (Readers can also subscribe to Crypto Daybook Americas for daily updates on upcoming catalysts.)

The final week of March is likely to bring heightened volatility. The FTX Recovery Trust is scheduled to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday, while the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report arrives Friday — a session when many global equity markets will be closed for Good Friday.

Geopolitical risks remain front and center. The Middle East conflict, now in its fifth week, has disrupted vital energy infrastructure and transport routes, lifting inflation expectations and reshaping the outlook for monetary policy.

“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, tends to react early to shifts in risk appetite and has already repriced lower since October 2025,” said Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise. “This suggests digital assets began adjusting to tighter financial conditions ahead of traditional risk assets.”

He added that global macro forces continue to dominate sentiment. While liquidity conditions will play a role, the overall backdrop remains fragile amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.