XRP Triangle Formation Targets $1.60 After Clearing $1.38 Resistance

XRP closed near $1.35 yesterday after reaching as high as $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst Ali Martinez sees $1.38 as the key level XRP must break to trigger a bullish move that could potentially push the token toward $1.60. However, the outlook remains dependent on price action, with XRP still caught within an important support and resistance range.

Martinez, known as Ali Charts on X, says XRP is forming a triangle between support at $1.31-$1.35 and resistance at $1.38. The token needs to maintain the support zone as it moves closer to the triangle’s apex. A decisive break above $1.38 could confirm the pattern and give bullish momentum more strength.

Ali also warned that a drop below $1.31 could undermine the short-term bullish structure. In that scenario, the current support zone could potentially become resistance if XRP attempts to recover.

Why the $1.38 Level Matters for XRP

Cost-basis data indicates that more than 4.8 billion XRP were purchased between $1.31 and $1.38, making this range an important potential demand zone. Continued buying interest around those prices could help support XRP beyond the technical structure created by the triangle.

The data also points to significant potential resistance above $1.38. Around 1.99 billion XRP were acquired near $1.60, while another 1.98 billion XRP were purchased around $1.68. This concentration means $1.60 could become the next major hurdle following a breakout rather than serving as a clear path to further gains.

Derivatives Positioning Offers a Positive Signal

Recent futures data also provides some support for the bullish outlook. Total XRP futures open interest declined about 16%, falling from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion XRP on August 31. During the same period, XRP’s price climbed nearly 40%.

The divergence suggests the rally was not primarily fueled by traders taking on significantly more leverage.

Meanwhile, CME open interest increased approximately 36% to 387 million XRP. As a result, CME’s share of total XRP futures exposure rose from roughly 10% to 17%.

The increase could point to greater involvement from professional and institutional participants. However, CME futures can also be used for hedging, so the rise does not necessarily represent a direct bullish bet on XRP.

The $1.38 breakout level is also close to another important technical resistance area formed by moving averages. For the bullish setup to gain credibility, XRP would likely need to move decisively above $1.38 rather than remain below the major moving averages positioned overhead.