XRP Price Faces Supply Pressure Despite $300M ETF Demand

XRP gained more than 45% during Q3 as U.S. spot XRP ETFs drew roughly $307.9 million in inflows. Despite cumulative ETF inflows nearing $1.8 billion, XRP started October around $1.50 after several unsuccessful attempts to break through the $1.70 area. The strong fund demand has yet to establish a higher price level for the token.

The market response suggests ETF buying has not been sufficient to absorb all of the supply coming to market as XRP advances. Buyers can continue supporting prices while sellers provide liquidity into those bids, keeping XRP near $1.50 instead of allowing a sustained move above resistance.

Seven-day altcoin deposits to exchanges reportedly climbed to their highest level since October 2025. CryptoQuant said the rise in deposits was broad-based rather than being driven by a small number of large wallets.

Moving tokens to an exchange does not necessarily mean they have been sold. However, such transfers increase the pool of XRP that could potentially enter the sell side, making exchange flows relevant when evaluating available market supply. After XRP gained more than 45% in a single quarter, some holders could have greater motivation to lock in profits around previous highs, even while ETF investors continue buying.

This supply-demand balance can absorb new buying without immediately triggering a decline in XRP’s price. At the same time, it may prevent demand from producing the breakout sought by bullish traders until the number of willing sellers decreases. Broader exchange balances and other XRP supply indicators can provide context, but they cannot determine which holders sold during any particular rally.

XRP ETFs reported zero net flows on September 29 and 30 following stronger demand earlier in the month. Two flat sessions do not erase the broader quarterly inflow trend, but they show that incremental demand can fluctuate. Cumulative ETF inflows alone cannot establish whether current buying is strong enough to absorb every fresh wave of available supply.

The $1.54–$1.70 Zone Is the Test for Bulls

The first technical level to monitor is an hourly close above $1.54, which the primary report identifies as the initial confirmation of a breakout. A move above this threshold could create room for an advance of roughly 10% toward $1.70. However, such a move would not necessarily mean that the broader supply overhang has been fully absorbed.

XRP has repeatedly struggled to maintain gains above the mid-$1.50s, with late-September moves beyond $1.60 eventually losing momentum. The late-August swing high around $1.70 represents the more significant resistance area. A sustained break above that level would indicate that demand is absorbing enough available XRP supply to change the market structure rather than producing another temporary rally.

Initial support is positioned around $1.48–$1.50, close to XRP’s level at the start of October. If the token fails to hold this zone following another rejection, the recent price base could come under pressure. Derivatives positioning and leverage may also influence how a move unfolds, although those indicators cannot identify the specific spot-market sellers involved.

These levels provide a framework for analyzing XRP’s current price action without making a forecast.

What Does XRP Need for a Price Break?

An hourly close above $1.54 followed by sustained momentum through the mid-$1.50s would bring the late-August high near $1.70 into focus as the next major test. Reclaiming and maintaining that area would provide evidence that ETF and spot-market demand is absorbing the supply currently entering the market.

Conversely, another rejection followed by a break below $1.48–$1.50 would strengthen the interpretation that sellers remain willing to supply XRP despite continued fund demand. Such a move would not demonstrate that ETF buyers have exited the market, nor would it identify the sellers. It would instead indicate that existing bids have not yet absorbed enough supply to establish a higher clearing price.

Ripple’s connection to XRP does not alter the immediate technical question. The key evidence remains whether buyers can absorb available supply at the price levels where previous rallies have stalled. Until XRP establishes a sustained position above $1.70, cumulative ETF inflows should be viewed as evidence of demand rather than confirmation that a breakout is imminent.

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