Bitcoin entered the new quarter much like it ended the previous one, remaining confined to the $82,000-$85,000 range after more than a week of largely sideways trading.
The cryptocurrency briefly moved above $85,000 on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, the rally failed to hold, while renewed outflows from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs added little support for prices.
The ETFs recorded $148.7 million in net outflows Wednesday, according to SoSoValue, ending a nine-day streak that attracted $3.08 billion. It was the longest and largest dollar-denominated inflow streak for the funds this year.
Momentum had already begun weakening before the streak ended. Daily inflows reached nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21 before declining steadily over subsequent sessions. Bitfinex analysts said stronger daily ETF inflows will be needed if bitcoin is to continue advancing.
“Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply,” the analysts said in a market note.
The Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER), which compares bitcoin purchased by ETFs with the roughly 450 BTC produced by miners each day, fell sharply from 25.6x on Sept. 21 to 1.8x on Sept. 29.
According to Bitfinex analysts, absorbing the estimated 1.39 million BTC of breakeven supply between $84,000 and $86,500 would require BAER to recover toward 5.0x, equivalent to roughly $190 million in daily ETF purchases.
Bond Market Remains a Risk
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, emphasized the importance of macroeconomic conditions, particularly continued weakness in the bond market.
“The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight,” Kuptsikevich said in an email. He noted that periods of stress in traditional financial markets have sometimes benefited crypto, but said it remains difficult to determine when market caution could turn into panic.
Altcoins Show Selective Strength
While bitcoin remained range-bound, several smaller cryptocurrencies posted sharp gains.
Stacks’ STX token climbed about 25% over 24 hours to roughly $0.39, making it one of the strongest large-cap performers. The rally came as Stacks founder Muneeb Ali was appointed CEO of Stacks Labs, with the project seeking to expand adoption of its bitcoin staking products.
Midnight’s NIGHT token gained roughly 23% over 24 hours to around $0.04, extending a multiday rally. The privacy-focused token was up about 7% since midnight UTC after advancing 21% on Wednesday.
Ethena’s ENA and Near Protocol’s NEAR were also among the stronger performers, rising approximately 11% and 10%, respectively. ENA traded near $0.27, taking its weekly gain above 30%.
Quant (QNT) remained highly volatile, trading around $290 and gaining roughly 9% over 24 hours in some market snapshots. The interoperability token has more than tripled over the past week amid a series of sharp rallies and reversals.
The strength was not universal across altcoins. Avalanche’s AVAX and Internet Computer’s ICP fell about 5% and 4%, respectively, giving back part of Tuesday’s gains, when AVAX had risen 7% and ICP gained 8.3% from midnight UTC.
The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index was the only major sector index to gain 1% over 24 hours. The Computing Select and CoinDesk 80 indexes added 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while the remaining indexes edged lower.
Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin open interest declined to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion, while funding rates remained broadly stable at around 3% annualized across major venues.
The three-month annualized basis on Deribit was an exception, rising from below 5% to above 6%. The modest steepening suggests relatively firmer demand for leveraged long positions.
Options positioning also shifted toward calls, with the 24-hour call/put ratio moving to 83% in favor of calls from a previous 66%/34% split. One-week delta skew declined to about 4% from roughly 15%.
The at-the-money volatility term structure remained in contango but edged lower, with the front end near 29.5% and longer-dated contracts around 40% through mid-2027. The setup points to relatively subdued volatility, with strong call activity but limited willingness to pay a large premium for upside exposure.
Coinglass data showed roughly $100 million in liquidations over 24 hours, split approximately evenly between long and short positions. Bitcoin accounted for $100 million in notional liquidations, followed by ether at $51 million and other assets at $26 million. Binance’s liquidation heatmap identified $84,800 as a key level to watch if bitcoin moves higher.
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