September CPI Rises 0.3%, Missing Expectations; Bitcoin Gains Momentum

September U.S. CPI Comes In Softer Than Expected; Bitcoin and Stocks Gain

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose less than anticipated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates at its final two meetings of 2025.

Despite the government shutdown limiting broader economic releases this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to publish the report. Headline CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% forecast and down from August’s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose 3.0%, slightly under the projected 3.1% and up from 2.9% in August.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.2% month-over-month, compared with expectations of 0.3% and August’s 0.3%. Year-over-year, core CPI stood at 3.0%, slightly below the forecast of 3.1%.

Bitcoin (BTC $111,580.60) extended earlier gains following the report, trading near $111,600.

Traditional markets reacted positively as well: Nasdaq 100 futures climbed close to 1%, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 3.97%, and the U.S. dollar weakened modestly.

Ahead of the data, traders had priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next policy meeting, with roughly a 90% probability of an additional cut at the final meeting of the year, according to CME FedWatch.

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