Saylor’s AI Theory on Bitcoin Selloff Meets Sharp Rebuttal From Arca

Arca is blaming Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC for last week’s Bitcoin decline, directly challenging Michael Saylor’s argument that AI-driven capital rotation was responsible for the drop.

Saylor had claimed that the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is absorbing large amounts of capital and temporarily pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin. Arca, however, says the real source of the selloff was Strategy itself.

In a weekly note, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman said the “selling pressure last week was clearly due to the Saylor/MSTR news,” rejecting what he called “gaslighting from MSTR and other Bitcoin bulls.”

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, fell nearly 14% to about $60,000 during the week. The move followed Strategy’s June 1 disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC in the prior week, while still holding roughly 845,256 BTC worth billions.

Saylor maintained that the downturn was driven by broader macro conditions, arguing that AI investment is pulling liquidity across global markets. He said this trend does not weaken Bitcoin, but instead reinforces its long-term value as scarce digital capital.

Arca strongly disagrees.

Dorman argued that the key issue was not the small size of the sale—around $2.5 million worth of BTC—but the signal it sent. In his view, it raised concerns that Strategy may be forced into larger Bitcoin liquidations to meet dividend obligations tied to its preferred shares, including STRC.

He also pointed to recent financial decisions by Strategy, noting that the firm used cash to pay down zero-coupon debt and then surprised markets with a Bitcoin sale that barely covers one month of preferred dividends. With only a few months of liquidity left, he said investors are now questioning what comes next.

A bullish scenario

Dorman outlined a scenario that could stabilize sentiment: if Strategy announces via an 8-K filing that it has raised $2–$4 billion through MSTR equity and Bitcoin sales, enough to fund preferred dividends through September 2028. He said this would remove fears of forced selling and likely spark a strong market rally.

However, he does not expect that outcome.

Instead, Dorman suggested Saylor remains firmly committed to accumulating Bitcoin, which could result in gradual monthly BTC sales just to cover obligations—creating ongoing selling pressure in the market.

He warned that when a major structural buyer becomes a forced seller, markets tend to continue pricing in that pressure until conditions shift meaningfully.

A mixed but improving market signal

Despite the volatility, Dorman noted one encouraging sign: Bitcoin initially declined without dragging the broader crypto market down with it, suggesting investors are starting to price digital assets more individually rather than moving in lockstep.

Bitcoin dominance also fell for a second consecutive week, slipping below 58% for the first time since September.

Earlier in the week, BTC moved lower on its own specific news while other crypto assets remained stable—evidence, he said, that the market is becoming more selective.

By week’s end, however, the selling pressure intensified and most major cryptocurrencies eventually followed Bitcoin lower.