FBTC and ARKB Lead $221.7M Bitcoin ETF Inflows as IBIT Sees Outflows

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Bitcoin ETF News

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $221.7 million in net inflows on Thursday, marking their strongest single-day performance in two months, according to SoSoValue. The surge snapped a 10-day streak of outflows that had pulled $2.73 billion from the market.

While the reversal is notable, the breakdown of those inflows raises more important questions than the headline figure itself.

Notably absent from the inflow surge was BlackRock’s IBIT—the largest Bitcoin ETF globally and typically the main driver of positive flow days. Instead, IBIT recorded a $40.43 million outflow.

The entire rebound was driven by smaller funds. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $165.96 million in inflows, followed by ARK’s ARKB with $91.84 million, and VanEck’s HODL contributing $4.35 million.

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IBIT’s Absence Changes the Narrative

When institutional conviction is strong, IBIT usually dominates inflows—historically capturing 70% to 90% of net positive flows on strong days.

That distinction is critical. Flows from retail or short-term traders tend to depend on price momentum and can reverse quickly. In contrast, inflows into IBIT are often tied to longer-term institutional positioning, which is less reactive to short-term volatility. So while Thursday’s inflows are positive, the lack of participation from BlackRock tempers the strength of the signal.

Bitcoin’s price action supports this interpretation. BTC was trading around $61,700 at the time, rebounding from lows below $58,000 earlier in the week.

That roughly 6.5% recovery is typical of a move that forces out short sellers and attracts momentum-driven buying. Bitcoin’s push back above $60,000 between July 2 and 3 likely played a direct role in driving ETF inflows, suggesting both developments are closely connected rather than independent signals.

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Year-to-Date Context Still Heavy

Despite the positive inflow, the broader picture for 2026 remains under pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are still showing approximately $5.4 billion in net outflows year-to-date.

Thursday’s $221.7 million offsets only about 4% of that total. The prior 10-day outflow streak alone accounted for $2.73 billion, meaning the one-day rebound does little to reverse recent losses—let alone the broader trend.

For comparison, earlier in 2026, a four-day outflow streak ended with a $753 million single-day inflow—the largest reversal of that period—driven by renewed demand after sellers were flushed out.

By contrast, Thursday’s inflow is similar in structure but significantly smaller, at roughly 30% of that scale. This suggests a more cautious re-entry by investors. Additionally, the recent 10-day outflow streak was longer, pointing to more sustained selling pressure rather than a short-term flush.

Citi lowered its Bitcoin and Ethereum price forecasts on July 1, citing declining ETF inflows and challenging macro conditions. While Thursday’s data offers a counterpoint, a single day is not enough to reverse a broader trend. Whether sentiment shifts will depend on whether inflows continue in the days ahead.

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