Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ether Price Targets as ETF Inflows Slow

Citi has reduced its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether after withdrawing its ETF inflow assumptions, pointing to stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weakening investor demand.

Wall Street bank Citi has lowered its forecasts for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), citing a sharp drop in exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand and fading expectations that U.S. regulatory progress will reignite investor interest.

The bank cut its base-case bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and reduced its ether projection to $2,240 from $3,175. It now assumes zero net ETF inflows over the next year, reversing its earlier view that regulatory clarity would drive new institutional capital.

At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $58,400, while ether hovered around $1,570.

“The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12 months,” wrote analyst Alex Saunders in a Tuesday note.

Demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has weakened significantly in recent months, removing what had been the crypto market’s largest source of institutional buying since their launch in 2024. In June, the funds recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows, marking the largest monthly withdrawal on record and pushing year-to-date flows into negative territory following a 13-day redemption streak.

The downgrade represents a notable shift from Citi’s prior outlook, which had assumed that U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would encourage broader adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has been delayed, leaving the market without a clear near-term catalyst.

Saunders added that ETF flows remain the primary driver of crypto prices, with recent trends turning negative as investors pulled back from risk exposure.

The report also noted concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could become net sellers of bitcoin, a sentiment intensified by recent corporate actions from Strategy, even though actual sales have been relatively limited.

It further highlighted that both bitcoin and ether are trading below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has increasingly rotated toward AI-related assets.

Citi’s updated model assumes flat ETF flows in its base case. In a bullish scenario, stronger adoption from retail and institutional investors could lift bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. In a bearish case driven by recessionary conditions and continued ETF outflows, bitcoin could fall to $53,000 and ether to $1,094.

Despite a more constructive stance on U.S. equities overall—which could offer some indirect support through correlations—the bank said macro conditions alone are not enough to offset weakening crypto-specific flows.

Even so, Citi emphasized that ETF flows remain the most critical variable in its valuation framework, noting that any rebound in demand or unexpected regulatory progress could quickly shift the outlook.

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