BNB Price Crashes 8.7% in an Hour as $6.36B Binance Hack Sparks Heavy Short Bets

BNB plunged 8.7% within an hour on Thursday following the reported Binance security breach, underperforming Bitcoin as bearish futures positions increased. The key question now is whether the token can defend its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $692.

On October 29, BNB dropped from $744.90 to $680 in just 60 minutes after hackers reportedly stole approximately $6.36 billion from Binance, the cryptocurrency exchange associated with the token. The incident marked the largest crypto theft on record.

BNB’s recovery has been weaker than that of other major cryptocurrencies. The token is currently trading around $702, representing a 6.2% decline over the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $92.4 billion, while its price remains 48.7% below the October 2025 record high of $1,370. Meanwhile, bearish futures traders are paying funding fees to maintain their short positions.

This raises several questions: Why has BNB reacted more severely than Bitcoin to the reported breach? How did the token perform during Binance’s previous security incidents? And which technical price levels should traders monitor next?

BNB’s close relationship with Binance appears to be a major factor behind its weakness. As the exchange’s native token, it is particularly exposed to developments affecting the platform. Measured from Thursday’s 20:00 UTC price, BNB remains down 5.6%, underperforming Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin.

Importantly, the reported exploit did not directly involve the BNB Chain. According to TRM Labs’ analysis, the attacker extracted funds from Binance wallets across ten different blockchains, including Ethereum and Polygon. BNB Chain was not included in that list.

Instead, investors appear to be reacting to Binance’s exposure. Since BNB is closely associated with the exchange, concerns about Binance’s security and financial position have translated into selling pressure on the token.

Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said the exploit had increased selling across the cryptocurrency market, with BNB experiencing the greatest exposure. However, Rick Maeda of Laevitas described the decline as relatively limited considering the scale of what could be the largest exchange theft in crypto history.

BNB Futures Data Signals Increasing Bearish Pressure

Derivatives market activity suggests that traders are becoming increasingly cautious about BNB’s near-term outlook. Data from OKX highlights three important developments:

• Funding rates turned negative: BNB perpetual futures funding shifted from +0.01% before the incident to -0.0266% at midnight and -0.0434% by 08:00 UTC. This means short sellers are now paying funding fees to long-position holders. Bitcoin funding rates, meanwhile, remained positive during the same period.
• Open interest increased: Total open interest climbed approximately 20%, rising from $54.8 million to $66 million as traders opened additional positions following the sell-off.
• Long positions still dominate account numbers: The long-to-short account ratio reached 2.79, compared with 2.66 before the incident.

These figures suggest that a large number of smaller traders are attempting to buy the dip, while other market participants are positioning themselves for further declines.

This imbalance creates risks in both directions. A recovery in BNB could force short sellers to close their positions, potentially accelerating an upward move through a short squeeze. However, another breakdown could leave heavily positioned long traders exposed to additional losses.

How Did BNB Perform During Binance’s Previous Security Incidents?

Historical price movements show that BNB initially declined following Binance’s previous security incidents but managed to recover within approximately 30 days on both occasions.

The exchange has experienced two notable security-related events:

May 7, 2019: Hackers stole 7,000 BTC from a Binance hot wallet. BNB subsequently dropped 17.5% from its closing price before the incident, reaching a low of $18.30 three days later. However, the token recovered and traded 39.2% higher a month after the breach.

October 6, 2022: An attacker exploited a vulnerability in the BNB Chain bridge to mint 2 million BNB tokens worth approximately $570 million. BNB reached a bottom of $256.80 one week later, representing a 12.7% decline from its pre-incident closing price. Within 30 days, the token had recovered 20.5%.

In the latest incident, BNB’s deepest decline has reached 8.7% below its pre-hack price. If previous patterns offer any indication, the token could experience additional downside before establishing a sustainable recovery.

Some traders have also compared the situation with FTT, the native token of the now-collapsed FTX exchange, which lost nearly all its value following the platform’s collapse in November 2022.

However, the financial circumstances surrounding the two incidents are different. FTX had used customer funds and was unable to meet its repayment obligations. Binance, by contrast, has stated that it will cover the losses associated with the latest incident. Tether, Circle and other entities also froze approximately $2.7 billion of the stolen funds within hours.

Nevertheless, uncertainty remains. Binance has not explained exactly how it intends to finance the compensation, while withdrawals remain suspended pending the reopening it expected within 48 hours of its Friday morning update.

BNB Crypto Price Analysis: Can the 200-Day EMA Prevent Further Losses?

BNB is attempting to defend a critical long-term technical support level, but the margin remains narrow.

The token closed Thursday at $698.46, slightly above its 200-day exponential moving average of $692.46. Although the sharp decline briefly pushed BNB below this indicator, the subsequent recovery brought its price back above the level.

Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA at $733.06 is acting as an overhead resistance level, potentially limiting further recovery attempts.

Looking at the four-month price structure, BNB has returned to a range last observed in late August. At that time, the token traded between $674.60 and $726 for roughly two weeks before breaking higher in early September.

That breakout eventually carried BNB to $809.99 on October 5. However, Thursday’s sharp sell-off erased the entire advance.

The $692 region is therefore an important level to watch. A sustained hold above the 200-day EMA could help stabilize market sentiment and provide an opportunity for buyers to regain control. Conversely, a decisive breakdown would increase the likelihood of another test of the $674.60 support zone.

Over the next 48 hours, Binance’s operational developments could prove more influential than technical indicators alone.

A smooth resumption of withdrawals would potentially ease investor concerns and leave bearish futures traders vulnerable to a short squeeze. On the other hand, further delays or indications that Binance might sell BNB to finance the reported losses could intensify selling pressure and expose the $674.60 support level.

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