Bitcoin Trails Stock Market Recovery Ahead of Key U.S. Inflation Data

Bitcoin remained under pressure despite a strong rebound in U.S. equities on Monday, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201 million in outflows as investors turned their attention to October’s inflation report, scheduled for release later today.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $74,200 after declining since midnight UTC, having touched an overnight low of approximately $74,100. Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation figures that are expected to show a slower pace of consumer price growth in October.

Ether (ETH) fell 1.4%, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) index declined 0.2%. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) moved in the opposite direction, gaining 0.4%.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for 13:30 UTC. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect headline inflation to have increased 0.3% in October, while core inflation is forecast to rise 0.2%. Both readings would represent a slowdown from September’s increases of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

U.S. equities staged a recovery on Monday. The S&P 500 recorded its strongest daily performance since April 8, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.7%, recouping some of the losses from last week’s AI-driven selloff. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has remained relatively flat over the past 24 hours.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $201 million in net outflows on Monday, according to Farside Investors. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for most of the withdrawals, with $213.2 million leaving the fund. It has now experienced seven consecutive trading sessions of net outflows.

Derivatives positioning

Liquidations retreat: Crypto futures liquidations dropped approximately 84% to $184 million over 24 hours, compared with more than $1 billion on Monday. Trading volume declined 8.55% to $165.2 billion, while open interest increased slightly by 0.59% to $128.4 billion. The figures point to reduced market activity and limited net capital movement. The taker long/short volume ratio was nearly balanced, with buying orders accounting for 49.69% and selling orders representing 50.31%.

Funding rates remain mostly positive: Annualized funding rates are moderately above zero for most major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether. This means traders holding long positions are paying those on the short side. GRAM, the token previously known as Toncoin, is a notable exception, with funding near minus 60%, suggesting a heavy concentration of bearish short positions.

CVD signals are mixed: Cumulative volume delta (CVD), which compares market-order buying with selling and is adjusted for open interest in this data, shows different trends across cryptocurrencies. GRAM, Hedera (HBAR) and Tron (TRX) recorded the strongest market-order buying over the past 24 hours. Zcash (ZEC), Uniswap (UNI) and XRP, meanwhile, showed the strongest selling pressure.

Limited changes in major-coin positioning: Bitcoin’s notional open interest increased 0.70% alongside a 0.25% price gain. Ether open interest climbed 0.72% even as its price declined 0.35%. Solana (SOL) recorded a 1.94% rise in open interest while its price fell 1.06%. Although the changes were relatively modest, they suggest that capital entered futures positions even as prices remained largely unchanged or moved lower.

HYPE and XRP record open-interest declines: Hyperliquid’s HYPE token saw open interest fall 1.14% despite a 1.62% price increase, indicating that traders reduced their futures exposure during the rally. XRP open interest dropped 3.83%, while its price slipped 0.69%. The token also registered some of the strongest market-order selling activity.

ZEC’s open-interest decline largely reflects its price drop: Zcash open interest decreased 3.31% as the token’s price fell 5.41%. Since open interest declined less sharply than the price, the move appears to reflect the falling value of outstanding positions rather than a substantial withdrawal of capital. However, ZEC recorded the strongest market-order selling in the CVD data.

AVAX attracts fresh futures capital: Avalanche’s AVAX token recorded a 13% increase in open interest over 24 hours, compared with a 5% price gain. The larger rise in open interest suggests that futures capital entered the market beyond what the price increase alone would explain. However, CVD remained negative, indicating that market orders leaned toward selling despite the rally. Annualized funding stood near minus 6%, meaning short-position holders were paying long traders. AVAX’s advance followed Ava Labs’ November 9 announcement that Avalanche would serve as the core ledger for clearing and settlement on a planned tokenized securities platform affiliated with the New York Stock Exchange.

Bitcoin options show a preference for puts: The 25-delta skew in Bitcoin options remains positive across expiration dates, reaching approximately 10% for one-week contracts. This indicates that put options are trading at a premium to calls. One-week at-the-money implied volatility, which reflects the price movement expected by options traders, stands near 38%. The most actively traded contracts are also concentrated in puts, led by the $74,000 strike expiring on November 13.

Ether options activity favors calls: Ether’s one-week options skew is also positive at roughly 11%, showing that puts continue to carry a premium over calls. However, the most heavily traded contracts are predominantly calls, with the $2,600 strike expiring December 25 leading activity. At-the-money implied volatility remains relatively stable across expirations, ranging between 53% and 54%.

Token market developments

Avalanche (AVAX) has gained approximately 5% over the past 24 hours after the New York Stock Exchange selected its blockchain for clearing and settlement on a planned round-the-clock platform for tokenized securities. Despite the broader daily advance, AVAX has declined 2.6% since midnight UTC. XDC Network (XDC), a layer-1 blockchain focused on real-world asset tokenization, led the CoinDesk 100 on Tuesday with a 7% gain since midnight UTC.

Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies surrendered some of their relative strength from last week. Monero (XMR) fell 7.8% over 24 hours, while Zcash (ZEC) declined 6.3%, as market attention shifted toward tokens associated with real-world asset infrastructure.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) became available for trading on Upbit, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, at 06:00 UTC. Despite the listing, the token was down 0.9% since midnight UTC, trading near $74.50. That leaves it approximately 22% below its late-October peak of $96.

Pieverse (PIEVERSE), a project that enables AI agents to conduct transactions through messaging platforms such as Telegram and WhatsApp, was among the strongest performers of the day, climbing roughly 30%. The project recently hinted on X that it was developing an AI agent trading desk, although it has yet to confirm a launch.

Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stood at 40 out of 100, marking a substantial decline from its reading of 62 a month earlier.

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