Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Softer Inflation Could Trigger an Hourly BTC Bounce

October’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, with economists forecasting a 0.22% increase in core inflation. Historical data shows Bitcoin gained during the first hour after 10 of the past 13 CPI releases that recorded core inflation at 0.2% or below.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish October’s CPI figures at 8:30 a.m. in New York, equivalent to 13:30 UTC. The market’s Bitcoin CPI reaction could influence trading sentiment throughout the week. As the country’s primary inflation indicator, the report will also help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.

Economists project that core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by approximately 0.22% in October. This would represent a deceleration from September’s 0.33% monthly increase.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $74,400, remaining near Sunday’s two-month low of $73,510.

Inflation releases frequently trigger volatility across cryptocurrency markets. An examination of Bitcoin’s performance during the first hour following the previous 24 CPI announcements reveals a notable trend. When core inflation was 0.2% or lower, BTC recorded an hourly gain in 10 of 13 instances. However, when core CPI reached 0.3% or more, Bitcoin advanced in only four of 10 cases.

The key question is whether Tuesday’s inflation figures will support a Bitcoin recovery or create additional selling pressure.

Economists Forecast Slower Inflation, Although Estimates Differ

Most projections suggest inflation may have eased in October. A survey of 17 banks and research institutions conducted by The Wall Street Journal puts the median forecast for headline CPI at 0.25% and core CPI at 0.22%. Journal reporter Nick Timiraos shared the forecast data on X.

• Headline CPI: Estimates range from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital, compared with September’s 0.65% increase.
• Core CPI: Forecasts span 0.13% at Nomura to 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook Capital, versus 0.33% in September.
• Annual inflation: The BLS reported September’s headline inflation rate at 3.7%, while core inflation stood at 2.6%.

The difference between forecasts could have a meaningful impact on how markets interpret the report. Since the government publishes CPI figures rounded to one decimal place, the broad range of estimates leaves room for a core reading between 0.1% and 0.3%. A result of 0.3% would match September’s monthly pace, suggesting that underlying inflation has not meaningfully slowed.

Comparisons with last year could also be complicated. The U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the BLS from releasing that month’s CPI data, leaving no straightforward year-over-year comparison for October.

Tuesday’s CPI Is the Final Inflation Report Before a Potential Fed Rate Hike

The October inflation release is the last CPI report available to the Federal Reserve before its December 8–9 policy meeting. Financial markets are already leaning toward another rate increase. As of Tuesday morning, Polymarket assigns an 86.5% probability to a 0.25-percentage-point hike, while the likelihood of unchanged rates stands at 11.5%.

Rising interest rates generally create headwinds for Bitcoin. Higher yields make traditional investments, including cash and bonds, more attractive compared with non-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies.

A softer-than-expected inflation reading could reduce expectations for a December rate increase and provide Bitcoin with an opportunity to recover. Conversely, a hotter report could strengthen the case for a hike and put additional pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin CPI History: Softer Core Inflation Has Often Supported BTC Gains

To assess Bitcoin’s response to inflation data, we examined Binance price movements during the first hour following the 24 CPI releases published since October 2024. Each measurement begins at the 8:30 a.m. ET release time.

The findings highlight several differences between CPI trading sessions and ordinary weekdays:

• Higher volatility: Bitcoin’s median high-to-low trading range during the first hour after CPI releases was 1.17%, nearly twice the 0.62% recorded during the same hour on other weekdays.
• Core inflation at 0.2% or below: Across 13 reports in this category, BTC finished the first hour higher 10 times, recording an average gain of 0.45%.
• Core inflation at 0.3% or above: Bitcoin posted gains in just four of the 10 releases, with its average first-hour performance showing a 0.11% decline.

This historical relationship indicates a tendency rather than a guaranteed market response. The sharpest decline in the sample occurred on February 12, 2025, when core inflation increased by 0.4% and Bitcoin dropped 1.9% within an hour. The previous month’s 0.3% reading also coincided with a 1.4% decline.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Defend the $73,510 Support?

Bitcoin has managed to remain above its recent low so far. BTC is trading at approximately $74,398 on Binance, roughly 1.2% higher than Sunday’s bottom of $73,510.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). These indicators give greater weight to recent price movements and are commonly used to assess market direction.

Key resistance levels:

• $75,599: Monday’s session high.
• $76,481: The 200-day EMA.
• $79,128: The 50-day EMA, which represents the next major resistance level.

Key support levels:

• $74,177: Tuesday’s session low.
• $73,510: Sunday’s two-month low.
• $73,027: The August 21 low, which could become the next downside level if selling intensifies.

For traders monitoring Bitcoin’s CPI reaction, the first hour following the 8:30 a.m. ET announcement will be particularly important. Historical data shows that Bitcoin moved in the same direction over the subsequent 24 hours in 20 of the last 24 CPI releases, matching its initial hourly reaction.

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