Bitcoin Shrugs Off U.S. Strike on Iran as Oil Surges and Stocks Slide

Bitcoin remains August’s strongest-performing major asset despite renewed geopolitical tensions that have pushed oil prices higher.

Geopolitical risks returned to the spotlight after the U.S. carried out an attack on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting retaliation from Iran. The waterway is a critical route for global oil shipments and has faced disruptions since the conflict began about six months ago.

Crude prices moved higher on both sides of the Atlantic. WTI futures climbed nearly 2% to $85.10 a barrel, while Brent gained 1.9% to $92.39, according to TradingView.

Other major markets moved in the opposite direction. Gold declined 0.8% to $4,418 an ounce, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5% as Asian equities also weakened.

Bitcoin showed little reaction to the escalation during Asian trading hours. BTC was around $77,580, largely unchanged from midnight UTC levels, according to CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency has gained about 23% in August, outperforming gold’s roughly 9% advance and the Nasdaq’s 4% increase.

Other leading cryptocurrencies were slightly weaker. XRP slipped 0.8%, while Solana declined 0.6%.

Bitcoin Outperforms Despite Macro Risks

Bitcoin’s relative strength may be supported by continued demand for spot ETFs and expectations that the Federal Reserve could take more aggressive action following the Treasury’s bond-buyback program.

However, the outlook for monetary policy became less certain after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. His comments increased expectations for a possible September rate hike.

Warsh said inflation has not yet been brought sufficiently under control and argued that current financial conditions are not restrictive enough. He also cautioned that recent improvements in inflation do not yet demonstrate a meaningful easing in underlying price pressures.

The comments triggered a repricing across U.S. interest-rate markets. MUFG FX strategist Lloyd Chan said markets were assigning a 58% probability to a September hike and were pricing in roughly 1.5 rate increases through the end of the year.

Traders Urged to Manage Risk

Some crypto market participants are advising traders to remain cautious as geopolitical and monetary-policy uncertainty persists.

Giottus CEO Vikram Subbaraj recommended avoiding excessive leverage and favoring smaller positions with staggered entries. He identified around $77,000 as immediate support for bitcoin, while the $79,400-$80,800 area remains an important resistance zone ahead of the U.S. jobs report scheduled for September 4.

For now, bitcoin’s ability to remain stable while oil rises and equities weaken highlights the cryptocurrency’s strong relative performance during August, although upcoming economic data and changes in Fed expectations could determine whether that trend continues.