Bitcoin is approaching a technical setup that could mark its first major bullish moving-average alignment in more than a year, even as BTC prices decline in today’s session.
The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are just one crossover away from forming a bullish structure in which short-, medium- and long-term price trends point upward simultaneously. The configuration would be the first of its kind since 2025.
For the setup to be confirmed, the 50-day average needs to remain above the 100-day, while the 100-day must move above the 200-day. The first condition is already in place. The 50-day average currently stands at $79,495, while the 100-day is at $79,493 and continues to rise. The 200-day average is at $79,539, leaving the 100-day just below it.
Once the 100-day average moves above the 200-day, the three averages would fall into the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day sequence associated with strengthening momentum across multiple time frames.
“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.
Moving averages are widely used by traders to assess market trends. When shorter-term averages rise above longer-term averages, it indicates that recent price action is outperforming older price levels, which can point to increasing bullish momentum.
The potential crossover adds technical support to bitcoin’s recovery over the past three months. BTC climbed more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter, although the advance has recently stalled near $85,000 as the U.S. Dollar Index has maintained an extended uptrend.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.
Historical examples show that such alignments can precede substantial bitcoin rallies, although they have not always produced strong gains. A bullish structure formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when BTC was trading near $13,600, and remained in place through May 2021. Bitcoin eventually reached a then-record high above $64,000.
Another alignment confirmed in early November 2023 lasted through May 2024. During that period, bitcoin more than doubled, climbing from approximately $35,000 to $73,000.
More recent examples have been less convincing. The bullish alignment that appeared in June 2025 remained for 97 days, but BTC advanced only modestly from around $106,000 to $112,000. A similar setup in June 2024 lasted just 20 days, followed by an approximately 10% decline in bitcoin’s price.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. He added that subsequent price action will determine whether the setup develops into a sustained bull-market structure or proves to be another temporary alignment.
The next key test, according to Subburaj, is whether bitcoin can keep trading above its 50-day moving average during any market pullback.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
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