Bitcoin Holds Firm as Oil Hits $90 and Treasury Yields Rise

Bitcoin is trading unevenly as crude oil climbs above $90 a barrel and higher bond yields pressure stocks and precious metals.

The macroeconomic forces currently weighing on traditional markets have had a limited effect on bitcoin so far. BTC has shown notable resilience even as equities and gold have weakened. However, the dollar’s continued strength could present another obstacle for the cryptocurrency.

WTI crude futures have moved above $90 and were nearly 9% higher for the week at the time of writing, according to TradingView data. Rising oil prices can add to inflationary pressure, potentially giving the Federal Reserve less flexibility to lower interest rates.

Government bond yields with longer maturities are also climbing across developed economies as concerns over fiscal conditions increase. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for borrowing costs, has risen 10 basis points to 4.81%, its highest level since 2023. Higher yields can tighten financial conditions and reduce the incentive for investors and businesses to take on risk.

The combination has unsettled global equity markets. The S&P 500 dropped for a third consecutive session Monday, touching a four-week low. Asian equities were also under pressure, with the surge in oil prices raising concerns for economies that rely heavily on energy imports.

Gold has suffered an even sharper pullback, falling from around $4,700 an ounce to approximately $4,300 in less than a week.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained relatively stable. Following Friday’s roughly 3% decline, which took BTC below $77,000, selling pressure has remained limited. CoinDesk data shows the cryptocurrency has since moved within a choppy range between roughly $76,000 and $80,000.

Bitcoin’s ability to absorb these macroeconomic pressures could be interpreted as a bullish signal. One possible explanation is that higher bond yields are being driven primarily by concerns about government finances rather than stronger economic growth. If so, the environment could increase demand for scarce assets such as bitcoin that sit outside the traditional fiat-based financial system.

For now, BTC’s price behavior is encouraging for bulls, although the cryptocurrency faces a potential challenge from the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to build on last week’s nearly 1% advance and has climbed to 99.67.

Technically, the DXY is trading near an important upward trendline extending from the index’s 2011 lows. A rebound from that level could encourage additional buying of the dollar.

Bitcoin has historically tended to move in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency, making further dollar strength a potential source of pressure for BTC.

Trendlines can also become influential because so many market participants monitor the same technical levels. Traders often use these diagonal support and resistance areas to determine entries, exits and stop-loss placements. As prices approach a widely watched trendline, coordinated buying near support or selling near resistance can reinforce the level and make the expected market reaction more likely.

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