Bitcoin holds around $76,500 as subdued trading reflects macro caution

Bitcoin hovered near $76,500 during mid-day trading in Hong Kong, moving within a narrow range as market activity stayed subdued following the U.S. holiday lull.

Sentiment remains cautious. On Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 60% chance that BTC will end the week above $76,000, while still holding support above $74,000. Despite that outlook, conviction appears limited. Singapore-based market maker Enflux noted that while bids are present, participants are not meaningfully increasing position sizes.

On-chain signals from Glassnode echo this hesitation. Its latest weekly report shows buying and selling pressures gradually balancing out, but overall trading activity has weakened—pointing to a market waiting for a decisive macro catalyst.

Positioning reflects this uncertainty. Traders are not bracing for a sharp decline, yet they also lack confidence in an imminent breakout, leaving bitcoin stuck in a holding pattern.

Enflux argues the current range underscores not only bitcoin’s stability, but also its lack of response to recent macro developments. Even after Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign debt and Walmart flagged margin pressure from rising fuel costs and softer consumer demand, BTC has remained largely unchanged.

While some view this muted reaction as a sign of resilience, Enflux interprets it as a sign of market fatigue.

A key missing driver is fresh institutional demand. After drawing $2.44 billion in April, inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have slowed. At the same time, exchange reserves remain near decade lows at around 2.3 million BTC, indicating a tight supply backdrop. However, limited supply alone has not been enough to lift prices without stronger demand.

Attention now turns to next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while putting pressure on bitcoin.

Conversely, a softer inflation print could revive expectations for monetary easing, potentially bringing institutional investors back into the crypto market.