Bitcoin News: BTC Falls Below $80,000 Despite $424M in ETF Inflows as November Approaches

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $424 million over three consecutive trading sessions, but the buying pressure failed to prevent BTC from slipping below $80,000. The decline followed a divided Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with two officials supporting a rate increase.

On Wednesday, October 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, marking their third consecutive day of positive flows. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4%, although two policymakers voted in favor of a hike.

Bitcoin initially climbed to $81,788 following the announcement before reversing course overnight. A sell-off in semiconductor stocks spread across technology markets and weighed on cryptocurrencies, pushing BTC down to $79,710.

Bitcoin was trading near $79,899, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 4.4% for October. If the monthly decline holds, October would mark the cryptocurrency’s second consecutive losing October.

As November approaches, traders face several potential market catalysts, including the U.S. midterm elections, upcoming employment and inflation reports, and uncertainty over the Fed’s next move. Prediction markets have also assigned a high probability to another rate increase in December.

The latest developments raise three important questions: Can ETF demand support Bitcoin prices, how will the Fed’s divided decision influence market sentiment, and does November’s historical performance offer any reliable clues about BTC’s next move?

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reach $424 Million in Three Sessions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $424 million across three consecutive sessions, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for most of the demand.

According to SoSoValue’s daily figures, the funds recorded the following inflows:

• Monday, October 26: $110.3 million, entirely directed into BlackRock’s IBIT.
• Tuesday, October 27: $176 million, with all 12 funds avoiding net outflows.
• Wednesday, October 28: $137.3 million, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.

The three-day recovery followed a significant withdrawal earlier in the week. On October 22, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $635.6 million in net outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each recorded outflows exceeding $200 million.

As of Monday, October’s cumulative ETF flows remained approximately $202 million negative. The subsequent inflows reversed that position, bringing the monthly total to roughly $110 million positive.

The 12 funds collectively held approximately $104.9 billion in assets, representing around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market value. Since their launch in January 2024, the funds have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows, with IBIT alone accounting for $66.1 billion in holdings.

Despite the renewed institutional demand, Bitcoin’s price weakness suggests that ETF inflows are not the only factor influencing the market. Interest-rate expectations, technology stocks, and broader risk sentiment continue to affect short-term price movements.

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Two Officials Favor a Hike

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates within the 3.75% to 4% range, but the decision revealed a disagreement among policymakers over the appropriate direction of monetary policy.

The decision passed by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack supporting a quarter-percentage-point increase instead.

The Fed’s statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials indicated that additional economic data would help determine the next policy move.

Chair Kevin Warsh offered little guidance about the December meeting. Speaking to reporters, he said he did not favor forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also rejected the suggestion that political considerations had influenced the decision, just six days before the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes encouraged traders to consider the possibility of further monetary tightening. According to the cited Polymarket pricing, the probability of a quarter-point increase in December stood at approximately 77%, close to its pre-meeting level.

Bitcoin initially responded positively to the announcement. After trading around $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC advanced approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the following two hours.

The rally did not last. During Asian trading, Samsung’s semiconductor division missed analyst expectations, sending its shares down more than 5% and putting pressure on technology stocks.

Bitcoin subsequently fell to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over a 24-hour period, adding to market volatility.

Bitcoin News for November: Key Dates for Traders

November could prove decisive for Bitcoin as investors assess whether inflation and employment conditions will encourage the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy again.

Several upcoming events could influence market sentiment.

• October 29: September’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and third-quarter GDP data are scheduled for release, followed by Coinbase and Strategy earnings after the market closes.
• October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry involves approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts, valued at roughly $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections could affect expectations surrounding economic policy and financial markets.
• November 6: The October employment report will provide fresh information about labor-market conditions following September’s reported addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: October consumer price index data are scheduled for release. September’s CPI increased 3.7% year over year.
• December 9: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest-rate decision.

These events could determine whether expectations for another rate increase strengthen or weaken. Higher interest rates can pressure risk assets by increasing borrowing costs and making lower-risk investments more attractive, although Bitcoin’s reaction will also depend on how much of the expected policy path is already reflected in prices.

Does November Historically Favor Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s reputation for strong November performance relies heavily on a small number of exceptional years.

Data from Binance show that BTC finished higher in only three of the past eight Novembers. Its largest gains during that period occurred in 2020, when it rose 42.8%, and in 2024, when it gained 37.2%. Both advances followed U.S. presidential elections.

The two midterm election years in the sample produced very different results. Bitcoin fell 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, the sample is too small to establish a reliable seasonal pattern. Both negative midterm Novembers also occurred during broader bear markets, making it difficult to attribute the declines to election timing alone.

Options markets are not currently signaling expectations for an unusually large move in either direction. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range recorded over the previous two weeks.

The historical record therefore offers limited guidance for predicting Bitcoin’s November performance. Upcoming economic data and the market’s response to Federal Reserve policy may prove more influential.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Defend $79,221?

Bitcoin is testing a key support area after falling below its 50-day exponential moving average.

At approximately $79,899, BTC was trading beneath its 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency had crossed this level three times during the preceding week, highlighting continued uncertainty over the short-term trend.

The October 24 low of $79,221 remains the immediate support level identified in the analysis. A sustained move below that price could expose Bitcoin to additional downside pressure.

Key BTC price levels

Resistance: $84,898

The October 21 high, where the previous recovery stalled.

Short-term support: $79,221

The October 24 low that has acted as the immediate price floor.

Lower support zone: $76,264–$76,476

The September 2 low and the 200-day EMA form the next area to monitor if BTC breaks below immediate support.

The longer-term trend offers a somewhat more constructive picture. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has climbed from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA moved above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.

However, the short-term outlook remains uncertain while Bitcoin trades below its 50-day EMA. A sustained recovery above $80,789 could help stabilize price action, while a break beneath $79,221 would increase the risk of a move toward the lower support zone.

Outlook: ETF Demand Faces a Critical Test

Bitcoin’s latest ETF inflows indicate that institutional buyers have returned after a period of substantial withdrawals. Nevertheless, the renewed demand has not been enough to keep BTC above $80,000.

The Federal Reserve’s divided decision has added uncertainty to the outlook, while weakness in semiconductor stocks demonstrates how quickly pressure in traditional markets can spill over into cryptocurrency trading.

For the near term, the September PCE report and October employment data are important indicators to watch as investors reassess the likelihood of a December rate increase. Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $79,221 support level may also determine whether the latest decline remains a temporary setback or develops into a deeper correction.

November’s historical performance offers no dependable guarantee of a rally. With macroeconomic data, election-related uncertainty, and shifting institutional flows all in play, Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend more on incoming evidence than on seasonal expectations.

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