Bitcoin ETF Sees $75M Inflow as Goldman Sachs Predicts December Fed Rate Cut

Bitcoin investment products attracted fresh capital on November 4 as BTC climbed back above $81,000. However, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts remain uncertain after Goldman Sachs revised its monetary policy outlook. Citing persistent inflation and continued strength in the labor market, the bank postponed its projected rate reductions by three months, now anticipating cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $74.6 million in net inflows, bringing an end to three consecutive trading sessions of outflows that collectively reached $1.16 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC led the recovery, while BlackRock’s IBIT continued to experience investor withdrawals.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund attracted approximately $236.7 million on November 4. Bitwise’s BITB recorded another $15.2 million in inflows, while ARK Invest’s ARKB added $19.9 million.

In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust registered $201.2 million in net outflows. This extended IBIT’s withdrawal streak to four consecutive sessions, with cumulative outflows reaching $935 million. The contrasting figures suggest that institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains uneven, despite the return of positive flows across the broader ETF market.

Bitcoin also staged a recovery after falling to a seven-week low near $75,600 during the November 3 midterm election period. The cryptocurrency subsequently moved back above $81,000 on Wednesday as market conditions stabilized following the U.S. elections. However, analysts cautioned that the rebound should not be attributed to any single market development.

Goldman Sachs Pushes Back Fed Rate Cuts as Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return

Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast, moving its expected interest rate reductions back by one quarter. The investment bank now anticipates the next two cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.

The updated outlook reflects concerns that elevated energy prices could keep core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation close to 3% throughout the year. Goldman economist David Mericle indicated that weaker inflation data and additional signs of labor market deterioration would likely be required for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering rates before the end of 2026.

Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for the federal funds rate to eventually reach a range of 3% to 3.25%. However, the bank acknowledged that further reductions could be delayed or abandoned if economic activity and employment conditions remain stronger than expected.

Bank of America presented an even more conservative assessment, removing its forecast for rate cuts in 2026 and shifting its expected easing cycle to the third quarter of 2027.

The changing outlook creates a potentially difficult macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin. Historically, lower borrowing costs and improving liquidity conditions have supported demand for risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies. Delayed monetary easing could therefore limit the strength of Bitcoin’s recovery.

Nevertheless, the latest ETF inflows indicate that some institutional investors continue to increase their Bitcoin exposure despite uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

This leaves the market facing two competing signals. Continued institutional purchases could provide support for Bitcoin prices if ETF inflows remain positive. However, persistently high interest rates could restrict liquidity and weigh on demand for riskier investments.

For Bitcoin traders, the sustainability of ETF inflows and incoming inflation and employment data may become increasingly important in determining the market’s next direction.

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