As oil climbs to a three-week high on Hormuz standoff concerns, bitcoin drops under $77,000 alongside declines in ether and solana

Bitcoin fell to $76,923 on Tuesday morning, down 2.4% over the past 24 hours after once again failing to break and hold above $79,400. The repeated rejections around this zone are increasingly defining $79,000 as a key resistance level in the current market structure.

BTC briefly touched $79,399 on Monday before reversing sharply and extending losses into Asian trading. The weakness was broad across the crypto market, with ether down 3.7% to $2,290, XRP falling 3.2% to $1.39, solana sliding 3.9% to $84.10, and BNB easing 1.8% to $625. Most top-10 tokens ended the session in the red, with only TRON and DOGE managing modest gains.

Macroeconomic conditions added further pressure as Brent crude extended its rally for a seventh consecutive day, rising 1% to trade above $109 a barrel. The move reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with stalled negotiations over Iran’s proposal keeping supply risks elevated and reinforcing inflation concerns.

Equity markets were largely subdued. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded flat, while Japanese equities edged higher after the Bank of Japan voted 6–3 to keep policy unchanged. The yen strengthened slightly to around 159 per dollar.

In crypto markets, analysts remain split on what is driving recent volatility. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pointed to renewed U.S. retail participation alongside institutional inflows and constrained supply, arguing the broader setup still supports upside potential. On-chain data from Santiment also shows whales have accumulated more than 40,000 BTC over the past two weeks, alongside a rapid shift in sentiment from fear toward FOMO.

In contrast, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said the move above $79,000 was largely driven by a derivatives short squeeze rather than sustained spot demand. He cautioned that once forced covering fades, the market could be vulnerable if new buying interest does not materialize.

Derivatives data adds nuance to that view. Funding rates on perpetual futures remain negative on a 7-day basis at -0.13%, according to Coinglass, suggesting shorts still dominate positioning and are paying longs—conditions often associated with unstable or transitional market phases.

Despite mixed signals in derivatives, corporate accumulation continues. Strategy reportedly purchased $3.9 billion worth of bitcoin in April, marking its largest monthly buy in a year. In Japan, Metaplanet announced a $50 million bond issuance to fund further bitcoin acquisitions, extending its debt-financed treasury strategy.

Markets now turn to a critical macro week. The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday, with traders increasingly pricing in easing expectations following shifts in policy outlook tied to developments around the Justice Department’s closure of its probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Big Tech earnings will also be in focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta reporting midweek, followed by Apple on Thursday. Together, the group represents roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

Traders say a dovish Fed signal or strong earnings surprise could provide the catalyst needed for bitcoin to reclaim $80,000. Without it, repeated failures near $79,000 risk cementing the level as firm resistance in the near term.

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