
Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge to new all-time highs, options market activity suggests that traders are becoming more cautious, showing less aggressive optimism compared to previous rallies.
On Monday, Bitcoin crossed the $107,000 mark, surpassing its previous peak from December 5 and bringing the post-U.S. election rally to a gain of more than 50%, according to CoinDesk data. This surge follows President-elect Donald Trump’s declaration that the U.S. would establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, similar to its oil reserve. Analysts predict that the bullish trend could continue into next year, with Bitcoin potentially reaching between $150,000 and $200,000 by 2025.
However, options data from Deribit reveals that traders are not as eager to chase this rally. The 25-delta risk reversal for options expiring this Friday has turned negative, reflecting an increased demand for put options, which serve as protection against downward price movements. Puts expiring on December 27 were trading at a slight premium over calls, while the longer-term risk reversal through March exhibited a modest call bias of just three volatility points.
This marks a shift from recent trends when traders were aggressively buying call options, driving both short- and long-term call biases to four or five volatility points. The current data indicates a more balanced outlook, with traders seemingly more cautious about the sustainability of the rally.
Moreover, block trades tracked by Amberdata have shown a bearish tilt. The most significant trade involved a short position on a $108,000 strike call expiring on December 27, along with long positions on $100,000 strike puts expiring on December 27 and January 3.
This shift in sentiment may be due to expectations that the Federal Reserve could signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025, despite a widely expected 25 basis point cut. If the Fed’s actions lead to a strengthening dollar and higher bond yields, the case for riskier assets like Bitcoin may weaken. As a result, some traders may be positioning for a potential correction, indicating a more cautious stance in the market.
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