Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $424M as BTC Falls Below $80K Ahead of November

Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted approximately $424 million over three consecutive trading sessions, but the buying momentum was not enough to keep BTC above $80,000. Following a divided Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates, Bitcoin initially climbed before reversing its gains as weakness in semiconductor stocks spread across the cryptocurrency market.

On Wednesday, October 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, marking their third consecutive day of positive flows. During the same meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate within the 3.75%–4% range, although two officials dissented in favor of a rate increase.

Bitcoin initially advanced to $81,788 following the Fed announcement but subsequently retreated to $79,710 during overnight trading. The decline coincided with selling pressure in technology shares, particularly semiconductor stocks.

BTC is currently trading near $79,899, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours and 4.4% throughout October. This puts the cryptocurrency on course for its second consecutive October loss.

Looking ahead, November could bring several important catalysts for Bitcoin investors, including the U.S. midterm elections, employment and inflation reports, and growing expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Prediction markets currently assign a 79% probability to a December hike.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reach $424 Million in Three Trading Sessions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $424 million over three consecutive sessions, with BlackRock accounting for most of the recent investment activity.

According to SoSoValue’s daily figures, the inflows were distributed as follows:

• Monday, October 26: Bitcoin ETFs received $110.3 million, with the entire amount flowing into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
• Tuesday, October 27: Total inflows reached $176 million, and all 12 funds recorded positive flows.
• Wednesday, October 28: The funds attracted another $137.3 million. IBIT accounted for $136 million, while Bitwise’s BITB received $1.3 million.

The latest recovery in institutional demand follows a significant period of withdrawals. On October 22, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $635.6 million in daily outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each recorded losses exceeding $200 million.

By Monday, October’s cumulative ETF flows were still approximately $202 million negative. However, the subsequent two sessions reversed the trend, bringing the monthly balance to roughly $110 million in positive territory.

Collectively, the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage approximately $104.9 billion in assets, equivalent to around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Since launching in January 2024, these funds have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the largest product, holding approximately $66.1 billion in assets.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates as Bitcoin Reverses Its Gains

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but the decision revealed disagreements among policymakers over the direction of monetary policy.

The central bank approved the decision by a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 0.25-percentage-point increase.

In its statement, the Fed described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials also indicated that future decisions would depend on incoming economic information.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided providing a clear signal about the December meeting. During his press conference, he said he did not support forward guidance unless exceptional circumstances or a crisis required it. He also rejected suggestions that political considerations influenced the decision, coming just six days before the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes strengthened expectations that policymakers could consider additional tightening. Polymarket’s December rate market placed the probability of a quarter-point increase at approximately 77%, close to its level before the announcement.

Bitcoin initially responded positively to the decision. Trading around $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC gained approximately 1.1% over the following two hours, reaching $81,788.

However, the recovery did not last. Selling accelerated during Asian trading hours after Samsung’s semiconductor division reported results below analyst expectations, sending its shares down more than 5% and weighing on broader technology stocks.

Bitcoin subsequently slipped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. Meanwhile, more than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over a 24-hour period.

Bitcoin News in November: Key Economic Events and Market Catalysts

November will bring several important economic releases and political developments that could influence Bitcoin’s price direction and the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

The upcoming calendar includes several events that traders will be monitoring closely:

• October 29: September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and third-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. Coinbase and Strategy will also report earnings after the market closes.
• October 30: Deribit will hold its monthly options expiry, involving approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts worth around $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections could influence financial markets and investor sentiment.
• November 6: The October employment report will provide fresh information about labor market conditions following September’s addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release. September’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.7%.
• December 9: The Federal Reserve will announce its next monetary policy decision.

November has historically been considered a favorable month for Bitcoin, but recent performance does not fully support that reputation.

Data from Binance shows that BTC recorded monthly gains in only three of the previous eight Novembers. The strongest performances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when Bitcoin advanced 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed presidential elections.

By comparison, November delivered substantial losses during the two midterm election years. Bitcoin declined 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, an eight-year historical sample is relatively small, and both negative November performances occurred during broader cryptocurrency bear markets.

Options market activity also suggests that traders are not anticipating an unusually large move in either direction. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the volatility implied by Bitcoin options over 30 days, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday. That was slightly below the 37–39 range maintained during the previous two weeks.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Maintain Support at $79,221?

Bitcoin is approaching an important technical support region as it struggles to regain its position above the 50-day exponential moving average.

At approximately $79,899 on Binance, BTC is trading below its 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency has moved above and below this indicator three times over the past seven days, highlighting continued uncertainty in the short-term trend.

The October 24 low of $79,221 currently represents an important support level that buyers have managed to defend.

The longer-term technical structure, however, remains relatively stable. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has gradually increased from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. Additionally, the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.

The following price levels are particularly important:

• Resistance at $84,898: Bitcoin’s October 21 high represents the next major upside barrier and the level where its previous rally lost momentum.
• Immediate support at $79,221: This corresponds to the October 24 low and remains the first important downside level.
• Lower support between $76,264 and $76,476: This region combines the September 2 low with the current 200-day EMA.

The return of ETF investment demand provides some support for Bitcoin, but uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and weakness in technology stocks continue to weigh on its price.

For the immediate outlook, the September PCE inflation figures and upcoming employment data will be important indicators. Whether Bitcoin can defend $79,221 and reclaim its 50-day EMA near $80,789 could help determine its direction as November begins.

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