Bitcoin Price Defies History as This Bear Market Avoids the Red

Bitcoin’s drawdown this cycle never resulted in a daily close below its Realized Price, while aggregate NUPL remained above zero throughout the cycle. Together, these metrics suggest that overall market stress has been less severe than during previous bear markets.

During the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin remained below its Realized Price for several months. That pattern has not repeated this time. Bitcoin never posted a daily close beneath the metric, and the June low also stayed above it. Glassnode notes that if Bitcoin continues to trade above the True Market Mean, the June low would represent the shallowest of the three bear-market lows in its comparison.

At June’s low, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit dropped to roughly the same level recorded around the November 2022 bottom. This indicates that a similarly large portion of the supply was trading at a loss. However, the magnitude of those losses was different. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which tracks unrealized gains and losses across the Bitcoin supply, never fell below zero this cycle, unlike during the 2018 and 2022 downturns.

A positive NUPL does not mean every Bitcoin or every long-term holder is profitable. The same distinction applies to Bitcoin remaining above its Realized Price.

What Does Holder Profitability Data Show?

Glassnode identifies $84,000–$85,000 as the largest long-term-holder supply cluster. The range represents a significant concentration of holder supply, although the presence of a supply cluster does not establish that those coins are currently profitable or that holders intend to sell.

The report identifies the mean MVRV price at approximately $96,700. This metric is calculated by multiplying Realized Price by Bitcoin’s long-term average MVRV. Glassnode views it as the level at which the average holder’s unrealized profit returns to its longer-term average. Holders who purchased Bitcoin one to two years ago, including those who bought near the upper end of the range, would also be approaching break-even around this level.

On the downside, the True Market Mean near $77,000 serves as the report’s primary support reference. These price levels provide a framework for evaluating the recovery, while institutional demand adds another important dimension. Bitcoin’s institutional-demand outlook offers additional context for understanding the impact of capital inflows.

Data also shows that long-term-holder MVRV has remained above 1 during the current cycle. There are further indications that selling pressure has remained relatively limited. Weekly realized profits during the current rally are only a fraction of the levels seen at the 2024 and 2025 market peaks, despite almost all short-term holders returning to profitability.

Bitcoin Recovery Faces Key Resistance

The next major hurdle sits between $95,000 and $97,000, where options positioning overlaps with the mean MVRV price. The report’s chart shows the strongest positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes, while negative gamma has accumulated between the current spot price and $92,000. Dealer hedging could amplify price movements between spot and $92,000 before helping to limit volatility closer to $95,000.

Demand conditions have improved, although they do not guarantee that the recovery will continue. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.3 billion during the five days following the squeeze, reversing two weeks of net outflows. At the same time, 24-hour spot trading volume has more than doubled from its August low, climbing 121% since the rally began. However, the seven-day average remains about 30% below its level from a year earlier.

These developments provide support for the recovery thesis. A decline below $84,000 would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into focus, while a sustained move above $95,000–$97,000 would put the major overhead resistance zone to the test. October resistance levels and broader macroeconomic catalysts will also influence the market’s risk-reward profile.

The data supports a more measured conclusion than simply calling this cycle historically different. Bitcoin avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and never recorded a daily close below Realized Price. At the same time, profit-taking has remained relatively subdued, while ETF inflows and spot trading activity have recovered.

As long as Bitcoin stays above $84,000, Glassnode’s framework leaves room for a move toward $96,700. A break below $84,000 followed by a decline toward $77,000, however, would raise doubts about the strength of the ongoing recovery.

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