Bitcoin Dominance Nears 60% as Crypto Traders Shift Into Risk-On Mode

Crypto markets moved broadly higher ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, with Bitcoin leading the advance as traders showed greater appetite for risk.

Bitcoin was trading above $86,000 at 9:10 UTC, up 3.4% over the previous 24 hours. Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB also posted gains, although none matched Bitcoin’s performance.

Some of the strongest moves came among mid- and large-cap altcoins. SKY, AAVE and APT gained between 7% and 10%, making them the top performers among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market is approaching 60%. At the same time, USDT’s market share has fallen to about 6.3%. The decline in the largest dollar-backed stablecoin’s share suggests some capital may be rotating from cash-like assets into cryptocurrencies, providing signs of increased risk appetite.

The next major catalyst is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. FactSet consensus estimates call for 90,000 jobs to have been added in September, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

For Bitcoin, traders are also watching how Treasury yields respond to the employment data, particularly inflation-adjusted real yields. The jobs report and the Oct. 14 consumer price index are both viewed as important signals for the direction of longer-term yields.

Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, which manages $500 million, said he is monitoring the 10-year real yield around the 3% level. He said a sustained move above that threshold could increase the likelihood of Bitcoin revisiting $80,000-$82,000 rather than advancing toward $90,000.

Markets currently price a 30% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 70%. The shift followed more accommodative comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. Lower expectations for a hike can provide support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Some market observers expect those rate-hike expectations to remain relatively stable unless the payrolls figure significantly exceeds forecasts. A major upside surprise could revive expectations for an October hike and potentially weigh on Bitcoin.

Derivatives Positioning

Bitcoin open interest increased to $22.4 billion from $20.9 billion a day earlier, while funding rates have begun rising on some exchanges. Annualized funding reached roughly 9%-10% on Hyperliquid and OKX, while Deribit’s three-month annualized basis remained above 6%.

The combination of rising open interest and firmer funding rates suggests leveraged long positions are being added.

Options activity also remained tilted toward calls. The 24-hour put/call ratio stood at 88% in favor of calls, compared with 83% previously. The one-week 25-delta skew narrowed further to about 1.5% from roughly 4%, while the at-the-money volatility curve remained in contango, rising from around 27%-28% at the front end to approximately 40% by late 2027.

CoinGlass data showed $344 million in liquidations over 24 hours, up from $100 million the previous day. Longs accounted for 28% of liquidations and shorts 72%. Bitcoin led with $132 million in liquidations, followed by Ether at $70 million and other assets at $26 million. Binance’s liquidation heatmap identified $87,400 as a key level to watch if Bitcoin continues higher.

Token Moves

Quant was the biggest decliner after a highly volatile week, falling roughly 15% over 24 hours to around $250. The interoperability token had more than tripled during a multiday rally before profit-taking reversed part of those gains.

LayerZero and Aave were among the strongest large-cap performers, rising about 11% and 9%, respectively. ZRO traded near $1.91, while AAVE reached around $182 as traders continued to focus on proposed protocol upgrades and fee-switch governance discussions.

Some of the previous session’s strongest performers moved lower. Ethena fell about 9% over 24 hours to roughly $0.25 after reaching multweek highs, while NEAR declined 8.6% and slipped below $5.

Memecoins showed pockets of strength, with dogwifhat gaining 6.2% to around $0.26. Pump.fun also attracted fresh buying, rising nearly 4% as speculative capital rotated within the memecoin segment.

Stacks and Midnight both pulled back after strong multiday rallies. STX fell roughly 5% to around $0.38 following Wednesday’s executive leadership announcement, while NIGHT dropped about 5.6% to $0.04 after gaining more than 20% earlier in the week.

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