Bitcoin Reclaims $77,500 as XRP Outpaces Major Crypto Assets

All major cryptocurrencies were trading higher over the past 24 hours, although Zcash and Hyperliquid remained the only major tokens still showing weekly gains.

Bitcoin was trading slightly above $77,600 during Thursday’s Asian morning session, up around 1.5% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency had briefly fallen to about $76,400 during late U.S. trading before recovering.

XRP was the strongest performer among the major tokens, rising nearly 3% to $1.36. BNB gained close to 2% to trade just below $692, while Solana added about 2% and held around the $100 mark. Tron climbed roughly 1% to approximately $0.33, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE remained almost unchanged above $82. Ether was the weakest major asset, trading just under $2,400.

Looking at the past week, ether has fallen nearly 4%, while Tron is down around 3%, XRP has declined roughly 3% and Bitcoin has lost about 1%. That leaves Zcash, at approximately $817, and HYPE as the only major tokens still posting weekly gains.

Bitfinex analysts said the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors stood at around $76,350. Bitcoin came within roughly $50 of that level before buyers stepped in and helped stabilize the market. The price zone has absorbed selling from investors who purchased Bitcoin in February and March, with many choosing to exit around their breakeven levels rather than sell at a loss.

Bitcoin Faces September Seasonal Risk

Bitfinex cautioned that Bitcoin could experience a pullback in the coming weeks because of historically weak September performance. Analysts noted that Bitcoin has averaged a September loss of 2.95% since 2013.

However, they also said the momentum carried over from August could limit the significance of any correction. If a decline occurs during the month, the broader trend could still favor further upside over longer time frames.

Bitcoin’s resilience has come despite a sharp move higher in the bond market and renewed inflation concerns.

Fresh U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil prices higher and revived inflation fears. The move pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.8%, its highest closing level since 2023, while the dollar index climbed to just below 100.

U.S. equities remained relatively resilient despite the shift in macro conditions. The S&P 500 finished at 7,646, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 277 points. Gold settled near $4,418.

Fed Hike Odds Fall to 62%

Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data now shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on September 16 at slightly above 62%. That compares with more than 67% a day earlier and roughly 37% a week ago, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Futures markets are assigning virtually no probability to a rate cut.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report could become the next major catalyst for the September policy outlook. Options positioning is also concentrated around the employment release.

Downside hedges are positioned between $68,000 and $75,000 for the period spanning the payrolls report through the September 11, 2026, CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, bullish positioning remains concentrated in call options above Bitcoin’s current trading range, while perpetual futures leverage is significantly lower than its August peak.

A weaker-than-expected payrolls report, combined with Wednesday’s soft ADP employment figures, could reduce expectations for a Fed hike and potentially put the $80,000 level back in Bitcoin’s sights.

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