Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $78,000 as PONS and Arbitrum Fuel Robinhood Chain Rally

Bitcoin recovered some of Wednesday’s losses on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar supported gains across equities, precious metals and cryptocurrencies. PONS and Arbitrum also extended their rallies for a third straight session.

BTC was trading around $77,890 Thursday morning, up 0.76% since midnight UTC. The move partially reversed the previous day’s decline, although Bitcoin remained 2.89% lower over the past seven days.

Gold rose 0.97% to approximately $4,434, while silver gained 0.88% to $65.94 after both metals declined on Wednesday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, and S&P 500 futures added 0.15%. The moves came as the U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.259.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $9.3 million, marking a second straight session of withdrawals. However, the latest outflow was significantly smaller than Tuesday’s $239 million in net selling.

Most altcoins traded higher, with the altcoin season index at 35 out of 100. Gains were concentrated in tokens such as Lighter (LIT) and Arbitrum (ARB), with ARB continuing to benefit from revenue generated through its Robinhood Chain agreement.

Derivatives Positioning

Crypto futures sentiment turns neutral: The 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio is now roughly balanced, reversing the bearish reading seen a day earlier. Total open interest remained near $136 billion, while trading volume declined 7% to $187 billion.

ARB open interest reaches a record: Arbitrum’s ARB once again ranked as the best-performing top-100 cryptocurrency over the past 24 hours. Its open interest jumped nearly 10% to 1.58 billion ARB, the highest level on record, according to Coinglass. Other derivatives indicators remain broadly constructive, with both the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta and annualized perpetual funding rates in positive territory.

LIT rally lacks futures support: Lighter’s LIT token was the second-best performer over the past 24 hours, with its spot price reaching a record $2.85. Futures participation, however, has weakened, with open interest continuing to decline as the token price climbs. The divergence could indicate that spot buyers are driving the rally, but it also raises the possibility of a sharp reversal if derivatives demand fails to return.

BTC and ETH futures positioning remains light: Open interest in Bitcoin and ether futures is still hovering around recent multi-week lows, indicating relatively limited derivatives exposure.

Major token futures favor bulls: Futures markets for large cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, continue to show signs of bullish positioning. Their positive 24-hour OI-adjusted CVDs indicate that more long positions are being executed through market orders rather than passive limit orders, generally considered supportive of further price gains.

TRX short positioning declines: TRX’s annualized perpetual funding rate has improved to around -23%, compared with approximately -80% earlier in the week. Although the market remains tilted bearish, the reduction in short positioning lowers the possibility of a sudden short squeeze caused by heavily crowded bearish bets.

Volatility remains subdued: Bitcoin’s and ether’s 30-day implied volatility measures remain relatively calm. The muted readings support continued strength in spot markets and suggest options traders are not pricing in significant near-term fear.

BTC options retain a bullish bias: On Deribit, $82,000 and $84,000 call options continue to rank among the highest-volume contracts over the past 24 hours, indicating continued upside interest. Bitcoin’s seven-day skew, which measures the relative pricing of calls versus puts, has nevertheless declined from recent highs. Ether options activity remains more balanced.

Token Moves

PONS led the altcoin market Thursday, jumping 30.85% over 24 hours to $0.50 and extending its weekly gain to 318.72%. The launchpad is the largest revenue generator on Robinhood Chain and directs about 80% of protocol revenue toward buying back and burning PONS tokens. That creates a more direct mechanism for returning protocol revenue to the token than is common among other assets associated with the Robinhood Chain theme.

Arbitrum’s ARB continued higher for a third consecutive session, rising 16.77% over 24 hours to about $0.13 and pushing its market capitalization above $916 million. Daily trading volume remained elevated at $486 million, more than nine times its average of roughly $50 million per day last week.

Uniswap’s UNI moved sharply in the opposite direction, dropping 8.62% over 24 hours to $5.75. That made it the biggest large-cap decliner of the day, although UNI was still up 29.11% over the previous week. The token had been one of the strongest DeFi performers during the broader rally before Thursday’s reversal.

Monero continued its recent strength, gaining 4.30% since midnight to around $515. Pump.fun rose 4.96% to $0.004296, while LIT also advanced 3.13% to $3.92.

Bittensor’s TAO added 2.33% since midnight to $222.31, although it remained below the roughly $247 level recorded a week earlier.

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