Bitcoin Shrugs Off U.S. Iran Strikes, Eyes Best Month Since November 2024

Bitcoin remained near $78,000 despite a broader risk-off mood after the U.S. launched its first strikes against Iran in more than a month. The attacks pushed oil prices higher and weighed on equities, but BTC has continued to show resilience.

Bitcoin is up more than 24% in August, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since 2017 and its largest one-month advance since November 2024. Over the past 24 hours, BTC gained about 0.5%, while the CoinDesk 20 index declined 0.75%.

Equity markets were mixed across Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was largely unchanged and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 0.46%. Futures for Germany’s DAX and U.S. stocks pointed to weaker openings.

Oil was the biggest mover following the geopolitical escalation. Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel after U.S. forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iranian strikes on local military facilities. Gold, meanwhile, eased to around $4,440 an ounce.

Higher oil prices are adding to inflation concerns at a time when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole have already pushed the market-implied probability of a September rate increase to 58%.

Derivatives Market

Long-short activity remains balanced as volume jumps:
The 24-hour taker ratio remains relatively even between buyers and sellers, while trading volume more than doubled to approximately $183 billion. Open interest remained around $136 billion, suggesting increased turnover rather than a major expansion in new positions.

Liquidations reach $431 million:
Crypto liquidations totaled about $431 million, with ether accounting for roughly $130 million and bitcoin around $100 million. Solana, XRP and Zcash also recorded significant losses.

XMR shows signs of excessive leverage:
Monero futures open interest increased 15% to approximately 637,000 XMR, the highest level since February 2024, according to CoinGlass. XMR also gained about 12% over 24 hours.

The combination suggests traders are building leveraged long positions to capitalize on the rally. However, perpetual funding rates have approached 100% on an annualized basis, indicating that the cost of maintaining long positions has become unusually high. If the rally loses momentum, crowded positioning could trigger a rapid unwinding of longs and a sharp price decline.

UNI displays a healthier bullish setup:
Uniswap futures open interest climbed 12% while UNI gained about 5% over the same period. The setup resembles XMR’s rising-price, rising-OI pattern, but UNI’s perpetual funding rates remain near 2%.

That comparatively low funding cost suggests UNI is less crowded and potentially less vulnerable to a sudden volatility-driven reversal.

ZEC, SHIB and DOGE see the largest OI declines:
Open interest in all three assets fell over the past 24 hours, although the associated capital outflows remained relatively small.

BTC and ETH leverage remains moderate:
Bitcoin futures open interest is still below 700,000 BTC, compared with a June 4 peak of approximately 801,000. Ether’s futures positioning is showing a similar trend.

CVD signals selling pressure across most major tokens:
The 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative for most large cryptocurrencies, indicating that sellers are using aggressive market orders rather than relying on passive limit orders. XMR and UNI are the notable exceptions, both recording positive CVD readings.

Bitcoin volatility retreats:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, has fallen below 40%. That reverses the jump from roughly 39% to almost 50% recorded during the three days through Aug. 21.

The decline suggests traders are again anticipating calmer conditions despite bitcoin’s continued upward momentum. Ether’s implied-volatility gauge has followed a similar path.

Options markets show continued demand for protection:
Bitcoin puts at the $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 strikes ranked among Deribit’s most actively traded options over the past 24 hours. The concentration indicates that some traders are maintaining downside protection. Ether options showed a similar hedging pattern.

Token Performance

Uniswap was among the strongest major tokens over the past 24 hours, rising 6.9%. The gain coincided with on-chain data showing that more than $1.5 billion worth of tokenized stock trades have been processed through Uniswap on Robinhood Chain.

PancakeSwap also advanced 6.9%, although no specific catalyst was identified for the move.

Dash gained 3.4%, Bitcoin Cash rose 1.3% and bitcoin added roughly 0.7%.

Prom was the biggest decliner, falling 18% as traders appeared to lock in profits following a speculative surge. Despite the pullback, PROM remained more than 100% higher over the previous seven days, with no major project-specific negative development identified.

Overall, bitcoin continues to stand out for its resilience. While geopolitical tensions have pushed oil higher and pressured stocks, BTC remains close to $78,000 and is on course for one of its strongest monthly performances in years.

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