Bitcoin Joins Equity Rebound as $390M ETF Outflows Weigh on Bulls

Bitcoin held above $63,000 on Monday as it followed a rebound in U.S. equities, but a $390 million weekly outflow from spot ETFs and fading expectations for major U.S. crypto legislation continue to limit bullish momentum.

Bitcoin gained about 0.8% since midnight UTC, recovering slightly from last week’s decline. With no clear market catalyst, BTC appeared to be moving alongside U.S. stocks, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5% to their highest level since July 2.

The positive price action remains tempered by last week’s ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net outflows of roughly $390 million, including three consecutive days of withdrawals for the first time since late July. It was also the largest weekly outflow from the products in six weeks.

Ether ETFs saw relatively limited activity, while Solana ETFs moved in the opposite direction, recording their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.

Crypto legislation remains a major uncertainty

Attention is also turning toward the Clarity Act. Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn lowered his estimate on Aug. 14 for the bill becoming law in 2026 to about 10%. Prediction markets are slightly more optimistic, assigning it roughly a 17% chance.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote on Sept. 15 after lawmakers return from recess, although market participants increasingly expect the vote to be pushed back again.

Derivatives positioning

Taker activity remains balanced: The 24-hour long-to-short volume ratio among takers remains near neutral, extending the pattern seen Friday. Takers are traders who execute orders against existing liquidity in the order book.

Thin liquidity could amplify volatility: Bitcoin’s notional futures open interest stands at about $48 billion, nearly twice its 24-hour trading volume. XRP is showing a similar imbalance. If large-scale liquidations occur, limited market liquidity could make it harder to absorb the selling or buying pressure and potentially produce sharper price swings.

Bitcoin OI slips while XRP remains elevated: Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to about 750,000 BTC from roughly 760,000 BTC on Friday. Similar pullbacks have occurred since April, with OI spikes above 750,000 BTC often failing to persist. XRP futures are behaving differently, with open interest remaining around 10-month highs. ETH and SOL have comparatively lighter positioning.

CC shows signs of bearish positioning: Canton Network’s CC token fell more than 1.5% over 24 hours, ranking among the weakest performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies. At the same time, futures open interest increased by more than 5%. The combination suggests traders are adding short positions. Negative annualized perpetual funding and a negative 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta also point toward stronger bearish activity.

ZEC takes the opposite path: Privacy-focused Zcash has also recorded an increase in open interest, but its market structure is more bullish. A positive 24-hour CVD suggests buyers are taking more aggressive long positions through market orders. ZEC’s funding rate has also climbed to +10%, signaling growing demand for bullish exposure.

Volatility remains subdued: Bitcoin and Ether 30-day implied-volatility indexes remain close to their yearly lows, pointing to limited demand for options protection and relatively low levels of market anxiety. The same trend is visible in traditional markets, with the VIX sitting at its lowest level since January.

Near-term options favor bulls: Deribit data shows both BTC and ETH options skew favoring calls at the front end of the curve, suggesting traders are willing to pay more for upside exposure. The implied-volatility term structure also shows little evidence of near-term stress ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes.

Trading activity remains mixed: Among the most actively traded instruments over the past 24 hours, both Bitcoin calls and puts rank in the top five. Ether options show a similar split between bullish and bearish positioning.

Token market activity

Pump.fun (PUMP) was among Monday’s strongest performers, gaining 7.8% since midnight UTC while daily trading volume increased 55% to $90 million.

Zcash (ZEC) climbed 4.7% to $508, extending the recent strength across privacy-focused cryptocurrencies after Monero’s strong performance last week.

Morpho (MORPHO) rose 5% to $2.07, recovering some of Friday’s losses and leading gains among DeFi tokens.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) advanced 3.53% to $59.08, continuing its gradual climb and leaving the token about 2% higher for the week.

Fetch.ai (FET) was among the weaker altcoins, falling 1.56% to $0.1196 as AI-related tokens surrendered some of their recent gains.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator has recovered to 46 out of 100 from an Aug. 7 low of 36, suggesting sentiment toward altcoins is gradually improving. However, the platform’s Fear and Greed Index remains at 38 out of 100, still reflecting a “fear” reading.

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