Bitcoin Holds Monthly Gains but Braces for Volatile, “Choppy” August

Bitcoin has managed to withstand a series of negative developments this month, though traders remain cautious as concerns over potential rate hikes and upcoming employment data continue to weigh on sentiment.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is closing out July in a stronger position than many market participants had anticipated.

Although BTC briefly fell below $63,000 on Friday, marking a daily decline of around 3%, the broader picture remains positive. The asset is still positioned to end the month with gains of roughly 7.5%, a notable performance given the range of challenges that have pressured markets.

Recent weeks have seen growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year, rising bond yields, a sharp reversal in artificial intelligence-related trades, and a major security breach involving Coldcard, one of Bitcoin’s most widely recognized hardware wallet providers.

Despite these pressures, Bitcoin has avoided the larger correction many investors feared and has continued to hold above its bear market lows, even as risk appetite weakened across other areas of the market.

Bitcoin Shows Greater Resilience Than Stocks

Bitfinex analysts attributed much of Bitcoin’s strength to market positioning.

According to the analysts, crypto markets entered the Fed meeting with significantly less leverage than equities because derivatives traders had already been largely cleared out during the late-June selloff that pushed BTC below $58,000 on July 1.

Since then, average daily liquidations have remained well below this year’s usual $400 million to $500 million range, indicating that the market has seen limited forced selling despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Crypto declined less than highly leveraged equity sectors because the forced-selling pressure had already been exhausted,” Bitfinex analysts said.

Coldcard Exploit Raises Security Concerns

Meanwhile, the market continues to assess the impact of a major Coldcard exploit that resulted in the theft of at least $38 million worth of Bitcoin.

While the incident has not significantly disrupted Bitcoin’s price performance, it has added to concerns around digital asset security. The breach has renewed discussions about the risks associated with self-custody, which remains one of the core principles of cryptocurrency ownership.

Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent, said the stolen funds have not yet been sold, but the possibility of liquidation could create short-term pressure on Bitcoin prices. He added that the incident highlights the operational challenges that remain part of self-custody solutions.

Jobs Data and ETF Flows in Focus

Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty remains the biggest factor influencing market direction.

Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said markets may be moving into a “new volatility regime” as investors shift between expectations of rate cuts, pauses, and potential hikes. He noted that this uncertainty could continue weighing on high-risk assets such as Bitcoin until the economic outlook becomes clearer.

Bitfinex analysts expect investors to remain cautious ahead of next week’s U.S. jobs report, which will serve as the next major market catalyst following the Fed meeting.

Rather than focusing on another wave of forced liquidations, analysts said the key question is whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return once investors gain more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s future policy path.

“Positioning remains defensive while rate hike risks remain active,” the analysts said, adding that stronger institutional buying interest would be an important signal for the market.

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, expects August to bring uneven trading conditions, with Bitcoin likely remaining range-bound unless real yields decline or ETF inflows become consistently stronger.

“The market can handle a neutral Fed stance, but not a combination of a stronger dollar, rising real yields, and weak ETF demand,” Zhang said.

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