BTC holds under $73,000 even as U.S.–Iran peace deal speculation builds

U.S. equities, government bonds, and crude oil advanced on renewed optimism over a potential Middle East de-escalation, while crypto markets continued to underperform despite the broader risk-on tone.

Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have drafted a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and initiating talks on Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposal.

The development came shortly after overnight U.S. airstrikes on an Iranian military site near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route that has been a key driver of macro market volatility in recent months.

Even with trader skepticism around repeated ceasefire headlines, traditional markets reacted positively. The Nasdaq reversed earlier losses to gain around 0.6%, while WTI crude dropped below $90 per barrel as fears of supply disruption eased.

Crypto markets failed to follow the broader rebound. Bitcoin remained under pressure, slipping back below $73,000 after an early attempt to recover intraday losses. The asset is down roughly 2.7% over the past 24 hours, reflecting continued weakness in digital asset sentiment.

Following the Axios report, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would not tolerate any attempts to impose tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He warned of aggressive sanctions against entities involved in disrupting commercial transit through the key waterway, adding that any facilitating parties would face penalties.

On the macro front, the first inflation reading released under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh showed renewed price pressures. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year over year in April, up from 2.8% in February, marking its highest level in nearly three years.

Fitch Ratings’ head of U.S. economics, Olu Sonola, said the data underscores a more difficult inflation environment. “This is not just a headline inflation problem: core inflation is moving the wrong way too,” he said. “Price pressures are likely to persist over the next few months… The Fed is stuck — and the heat is clearly being turned up.”

While equities and bonds responded to easing geopolitical tensions and shifting macro signals, crypto markets remained subdued, highlighting ongoing fragility in digital asset risk appetite.

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