$13.3 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire as BTC Price Trades Significantly Under Max Pain

Bitcoin approaches Friday’s monthly options expiry amid heightened tension in derivatives markets, following a steep decline that pushed prices down 35% to $81,000 before stabilizing near $87,000. The recent sell-off has made options positioning a key focal point once again, with traders leaning more heavily toward downside protection.

Deribit data shows 153,778 BTC in contracts set to expire, including 92,692 BTC in call open interest and 61,086 BTC in puts, representing about $13.3 billion in notional value. The put/call ratio of 0.66 suggests bullish call exposure remains dominant, but the rise in put interest signals an increasingly defensive posture.

Calls provide the right to purchase bitcoin at a specific strike and are typically used to express upside expectations, whereas puts allow holders to sell at a predetermined price, often serving as insurance during volatile periods.

The options market’s max pain level is $102,000, roughly 17% above the current spot price, showing how far BTC has drifted from the zone where sellers would suffer the least collective loss. Around $3.4 billion of these contracts—about 26%—are currently profitable, while the remaining $10 billion, or 74%, sits out of the money. This distribution highlights how traders were positioned for sizable moves beyond today’s range.

The heaviest concentration of open interest remains at the $80,000 strike, forming the largest cluster of bearish bets. On the upside, call positions are stacked at significantly higher levels, particularly above $120,000, though these are unlikely to be exercised with spot prices still well below.

With sentiment stuck in fear and a large share of open interest sitting far from current price levels, Bitcoin may continue to see elevated volatility leading into Friday’s expiry as market makers manage hedging flows around the most influential strikes.