Probability of Fed Cutting Rates in December Drops to 30%

Odds of a December Fed Rate Cut Slide to 30% as Data Blackout Drags On

Market expectations for a December rate cut have tumbled, with traders now pricing just a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range, per CME’s FedWatch tool. That’s down from 50% last week—and a dramatic drop from the near-certain 98% probability seen a month ago.

The collapse in conviction comes as policymakers face an unprecedented information gap. The Labor Department confirmed Wednesday that October’s jobs report will not be released due to record delays caused by the recently ended government shutdown, depriving the Fed of one of its most important inputs ahead of its final meeting of the year.

Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting added to the uncertainty, revealing deep divisions among officials over whether the next step should be a pause or a cut.

Bitcoin was trading near $91,700 at press time, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

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