Morning in Asia: Investors Take Cover as Bitcoin Loses Momentum

Bitcoin Faces Weakening Demand as Traders Eye $85K Retest

Bitcoin is entering a more fragile market phase as the steady buying that supported prices earlier this year shows signs of fading. CryptoQuant reports that the cycle’s core demand wave has largely passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury-company purchases disappearing, and Strategy buys dropping to their lowest point of the year.

While this does not signal an immediate crash, CryptoQuant warns that upside is increasingly limited. Rallies are expected to stall below the 365-day moving average until new demand emerges.

Polymarket traders are reflecting this cautious sentiment, assigning the highest probability to a retest of $85,000 while giving minimal weight to upside scenarios.

Cautious Signals Across the Market
Glassnode highlights that short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest rate since the FTX crisis, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into risk-off mode, with options traders favoring puts and implied volatility climbing.

The Active Investor cost basis near $88,600 is now a critical level. A sustained move below this point would put recent active investors into losses for the first time this cycle and signal a shift toward bearish momentum. The next major support lies at the True Market Mean, around $82,000, which could mark the beginning of a bear market phase similar to 2022-2023 if broken.

The coming weeks will determine whether buyers can reassert control or if the downturn deepens further.

Market Overview

• Bitcoin (BTC): Trading around $92,000 after briefly dipping below $90,000 earlier in the week.
• Ether (ETH): Around $3,038, moving slightly lower in line with Bitcoin.
• Gold: Near $4,067, after an intraday high of $4,132, as risk aversion sweeps markets.
• Nikkei 225: Up 3.7% Thursday, lifted by strong Nvidia earnings and gains in chip stocks.

Crypto News Highlights

• Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Bill Hill sentenced to four years for unlicensed money transmitting (CoinDesk).
• New Hampshire launches $100 million Bitcoin-collateralized municipal bond (Decrypt).
• Bullish reports profits in Q3 following additions of options and U.S. spot trading (CoinDesk).

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