With over 4 million BTC now in the hands of short-term holders, Van Straten suggests the Bitcoin market cycle is far from over.

Since September, short-term holders have added over 1.5 million bitcoin to their portfolios.

According to Glassnode, short-term bitcoin (BTC) holders (STHs) have accumulated more than 1.5 million BTC since September, bringing their total holdings to over 4 million BTC.

This translates to an average of around 300,000 BTC being added each month. During this period, bitcoin’s price rose from $60,000 to $109,000 before pulling back below $100,000. Glassnode defines short-term holders as those who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days.

Historically, bitcoin’s price tends to peak when short-term holders’ buying activity slows down, leading to a deceleration in price appreciation. This pattern has been seen in previous bull cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

However, during these previous cycles, short-term holders held significantly more bitcoin at the peaks: 5 million BTC in 2013, 6.2 million BTC in 2017, and 4.6 million BTC in 2021. The current 4 million BTC in short-term holder hands is relatively low, suggesting that there is still room for new market participants to accumulate bitcoin, which could support further price growth in the current cycle.

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those who have held bitcoin for more than 155 days, have sold off 1.2 million BTC during the same period, indicating a profit-taking phase following bitcoin’s significant rally since November.

The ongoing selloff by LTHs has been a key factor in bitcoin’s price stagnation since mid-November.

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