With BTC Near $80K, Howard Lutnick Shrugs Off Recession Fears

Howard Lutnick Shrugs Off Recession Worries as Bitcoin Struggles Near $80K

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is pushing back against fears that Trump’s economic policies could lead to a U.S. recession, even as the crypto market takes a hit and Bitcoin (BTC) slips closer to its yearly low.

Speaking on Meet the Press Sunday, Lutnick dismissed concerns raised by financial analysts who caution that tariffs and trade tensions could slow growth.

“Absolutely not,” he said when asked if a downturn was imminent. “The same people predicting a recession are the ones who doubted Trump’s leadership before. The economy is strong, and it will only get stronger under his policies.”

A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, often triggered by shifts in trade, monetary policy, or broader market conditions.

Lutnick reinforced his stance on social media, emphasizing the broader strategic importance of Trump’s tariff measures:

“The President is fighting for America’s future. These tariffs aren’t just about trade—they’re about protecting our economy. Canada and Mexico need to step up in the fight against fentanyl, and China must stop distorting global markets. We won’t back down.”

Tariffs: A Path to Growth or a Risky Gamble?

Lutnick insists that Trump’s trade strategy will unlock $1.3 trillion in investments and fuel economic expansion by forcing foreign governments to remove barriers to American products.

“We’re about to witness an economic boom led by the U.S.,” he declared, brushing off warnings from Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that tariffs could lead to a downturn. “America is in the driver’s seat, and the next two years will prove it.”

While Lutnick admitted that tariffs might increase costs on imported goods, he argued that they would ultimately lead to a stronger economy by reducing the deficit and lowering interest rates.

“When we balance the budget, interest rates drop significantly. That means lower mortgage rates and a more affordable cost of living for everyday Americans,” he explained.

Crypto Market Signals Investor Caution

Despite Lutnick’s confidence, the crypto market appears to be pricing in economic uncertainty. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled 7% on Sunday, falling to $80,000 and nearing its 2025 low of $78,000.

Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP), also declined, while meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) posted losses of nearly 12%.

On Polymarket, traders are increasingly betting on a U.S. economic slowdown. The probability of a recession in 2025 has climbed to 41%, marking a 16% increase in recent weeks.

Mixed Signals from the Job Market and Economic Forecasts

The latest U.S. jobs report showed that 151,000 new jobs were added in February, aligning with analyst expectations. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and January’s job gains were revised downward, according to CoinDesk.

Public sector layoffs linked to the White House’s budget cuts could further impact employment figures in the coming months.

While the labor market has remained stable, early signs of slowing growth are emerging. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting a -2.8% GDP growth rate for Q1, raising further concerns about economic momentum.

Still, a separate Polymarket contract indicates just a 3% chance of a recession occurring before May, suggesting that while uncertainty is rising, a full-blown downturn is far from certain.