With Bitcoin’s realized cap staying at a record $1 trillion, the four-year market cycle comes under scrutiny.

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Hits $1.125 Trillion Amid Market Pullback

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has surged to an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting the crypto remains in a bull market despite a nearly 40% decline over the past 10 weeks.

This on-chain metric, which measures each bitcoin at the price it last moved, tracks actual capital inflows rather than speculative price swings reflected in total market capitalization. Glassnode data shows realized cap continued to rise through the 36% correction from October’s record high, although it has recently stabilized around $1.125 trillion. A similar pause occurred during the April 2025 tariff-induced selloff, when bitcoin briefly dipped near $76,000 before climbing to new highs.

During the 2022 bear market, realized cap fell from roughly $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated, a reaction not seen in the current downturn.

Four-Year Cycle Narrative Questioned

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the traditional four-year cycle, with upside surprises possible in 2026. He pointed to resilient global growth, ongoing rate cuts, and a steepening yield curve, all factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar—a historically bullish environment for bitcoin.

“Bitcoin appears to be materially underpricing the macro backdrop, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, despite no signs of a U.S. recession and evidence of accelerating growth,” Dragosch said.