Why Coinbase Could Rally 90% Even Amid Crypto Pullback, Says Analyst

Bernstein Keeps Bullish Coinbase Call Amid Crypto Volatility

Wall Street firm Bernstein is maintaining its most aggressive call on Coinbase (COIN), reaffirming an outperform rating and a $510 price target, despite recent crypto market turbulence and a pullback in bitcoin that has rattled investor sentiment.

In a Monday note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein described the current market as “fragile,” with choppy crypto prices spilling into public equities. Still, the firm argued that this downturn differs from prior crypto crashes because underlying businesses remain resilient, and speculative excess is largely confined to smaller “MSTR copycat” plays, while larger players like Coinbase are evolving their business models.

Central to Bernstein’s bullish thesis is Coinbase’s effort to reduce reliance on spot trading by building an “everything exchange”—a full-stack financial platform rather than a single-product venue. Stablecoins already contribute meaningfully to revenue, but investors often overlook other offerings such as staking and custody, which Bernstein sees as undervalued.

The firm noted that clearer U.S. regulatory guidance could be a key catalyst, helping re-rate these revenue streams, accelerate Coinbase’s expansion, and narrow the advantage historically held by offshore competitors who list tokens faster and capture fundraising fees.

Coinbase is also expanding into token issuance via a launchpad model, generating success fees while creating a flywheel effect: more issuances lead to more listings and higher trading activity. Bernstein cited Monad’s listing as evidence of strong demand for this model.

Near-term product catalysts include Coinbase’s Dec. 17 showcase, expected to highlight offerings beyond spot trading, such as tokenized equities and prediction markets. The company’s push into derivatives, aided by Deribit, could make Coinbase increasingly resemble traditional broker-dealers like Robinhood (HOOD) as the platforms’ product offerings converge.

On the consumer front, Bernstein highlighted Coinbase’s Base app as a potential on-ramp combining wallet functionality, payments, social features, and broader token access through on-chain integrations.

Overall, Bernstein frames Coinbase as pivoting from a spot-driven exchange to a full-scale distribution and services platform, capable of compounding through regulatory clarity, new token issuances, and a widening product suite—even if near-term sentiment remains tied to crypto volatility.

At publication, Coinbase shares were up 3.7% at $269.42, implying nearly 90% upside to Bernstein’s $510 price target.