Upcoming $5B Options Expiry Could Drive Bitcoin Higher, as Max Pain Levels Remain Elevated

Over $5 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire on Deribit This Friday

A massive $5 billion in bitcoin (BTC) options contracts are set to expire on Deribit this Friday at 08:00 UTC, potentially adding to the recent volatility in the crypto market.

Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation had kept Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) on a downward trajectory throughout 2025. However, following BTC’s sharp drop, DVOL spiked to 52 before pulling back below 50—indicating a brief surge in market uncertainty.

With bitcoin recently dipping below $90,000, a significant portion of these options contracts are now out-of-the-money (OTM), leaving many traders facing substantial unrealized losses.

Breakdown of Expiring Contracts

Options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell BTC at a predetermined price before expiration. According to Deribit data, of the $5 billion in notional value set to expire:

• $3.9 billion (78%) of contracts are out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning they will likely expire worthless.
• Nearly 100% of call options—bullish bets on BTC—are OTM, as the recent price drop has rendered them ineffective.
• $1.1 billion (22%) of contracts remain in-the-money (ITM), mostly dominated by puts. These contracts retain value as their strike prices are above the current spot price.

Max Pain and Potential Market Impact

The max pain level—the price at which options sellers (typically institutional traders) stand to profit the most while buyers face maximum losses—is currently set at $98,000, nearly $10,000 above BTC’s spot price.

This discrepancy could incentivize market makers to push BTC’s price closer to this level before expiration, according to PowerTrade.

“With the end of the month approaching, bitcoin options traders should take note. Max Pain for Feb. 28 sits at $98,000, with a massive $5 billion notional value. This means the highest open interest is clustered here, incentivizing market makers to keep bitcoin close to this price. Expect increased volatility and potential price gravitation toward this level,” PowerTrade stated on X.

As expiration nears, all eyes will be on whether the max pain theory plays out, potentially influencing bitcoin’s short-term price movement.

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