U.S. Buying Interest Weakens as Coinbase Negative Premium Reaches Its Largest Spread Since Early This Year

Bitcoin is poised for its steepest weekly decline since March as U.S. demand indicators continue to weaken, highlighted by a deepening negative premium on Coinbase and record-high trading activity in spot bitcoin ETFs.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global average, has dropped to -0.15%—its most negative reading since the first quarter. A discount on Coinbase typically signals fading U.S. demand, elevated selling activity and reduced institutional engagement. This trend has been in place since the sharp market unwind on Oct. 10 and has persisted throughout November.

The backdrop has been punishing for bitcoin (BTC$90,722.88). The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 11% this week, dipping briefly below $81,000 before stabilizing near $84,000. November’s performance has been even harsher: BTC has slid 23%, marking its worst monthly showing since June 2022, when it crashed 38%.

Is a Capitulation Moment Unfolding?

The deterioration is also visible in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which saw steady outflows for most of the month.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November

Friday, however, broke that streak. ETFs recorded $238.4 million in inflows—the largest daily total since Nov. 11—according to Farside data. Trading volume soared to a fresh record of $11.5 billion, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas reported, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $8 billion of the activity.

Balchunas also noted a record week for put-option volume in IBIT, suggesting long-position holders are increasingly hedging against downside risk. “This is one thing that may help people stay the course—they can always buy some puts as a hedge while they stay long,” he said.

With bitcoin now off 36% from its October all-time high, the surge in trading and realized losses may resemble the kind of high-volume capitulation that often precedes local bottoms. It’s not a certainty, but bitcoin may be attempting to stabilize in the low $80,000 zone.

Supporting this narrative, Glassnode recorded more than $4 billion in realized losses on Friday—the largest since March 2023, during the Silicon Valley Bank turmoil—adding another datapoint consistent with capitulation conditions.