Veteran trader Peter Brandt is warning that bitcoin’s (BTC $87,454.37) parabolic growth trajectory has broken, potentially opening the door to a drop toward $25,000.
Brandt’s analysis is based on the historical pattern of bitcoin’s bull cycles, which typically last 12–18 months after a halving before giving way to bear markets with 70%–80% pullbacks from all-time highs.
Each cycle has seen diminishing returns. Following the first halving in 2012, bitcoin surged roughly 100-fold to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold gain, and the 2020 halving generated an eight-fold rise.
The latest post-halving cycle, which began after April 2024, pushed BTC to a record $126,000 by October. Since then, prices have fallen below $90,000, cutting through the parabolic curve that has historically defined bitcoin’s major uptrends.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt said on X.
Using a log-scale chart stretching back to 2010, Brandt highlights four steepening arcs marking each cycle’s explosive rise. Breaches below these arcs have historically signaled the end of bull runs—the recent pullback beneath the fourth arc may suggest a similar scenario is unfolding.
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